تحلیل حساسیت تبخیر و تعرق مرجع پنج الگوی رایج با روش مونت-کارلو مطالعه موردی ایستگاه همدید بجنورد

نوع مقاله : مقالات پژوهشی

نویسندگان

• مهدی مکاری
• بیژن قهرمان
• سید حسین ثنایی نژاد

دانشگاه فردوسی مشهد

https://doi.org/10.22067/jsw.v0i0.27969

چکیده

هدف این پژوهش تحلیل حساسیت تبخیر و تعرق مرجع پنج الگوی پنمن- مانتیث فائو-56 (PMF56)، بلانی -کریدل اصلاح شده (MBC)، هارگریوز (H)، هارگریوز- سامانی (HS) و پریستلی- تیلور (PT) است. داده های هواشناسی مربوط به ایستگاه همدید شهرستان بجنورد شامل 13 سال (1387-1375) آمار روزانه دما، رطوبت نسبی، ساعات آفتابی واقعی و سرعت باد، برای حساسیت پنج الگو، استفاده شد. شبیه سازی مونت- کارلو برای تولید داده های تصادفی در یک دامنه مشخص انجام شد. ریشه مربع میانگین خطا (RMSE) سالانه و فصلی معیار اندازه گیری برای نشان دادن حساسیت ET0 به تغییرپذیری همزمان متغیرهای هواشناسی در هر الگوست. نتایج نشان داد که حساسیت به تغییر همزمان متغیرهای هواشناسی، در فصل تابستان نسبت به فصول دیگر بیشتر است. بیشترین حساسیت برای همه الگوها در فصل تابستان و بهار و کمترین مقدار آن در فصل پاییز و زمستان اتفاق افتاد. دو الگوی PMF56 و MBC بیشترین حساسیت سالانه و PT کمترین حساسیت سالانه را از خود نشان دادند. همه الگوها ضریب همبستگی نسبتاً بالایی با الگوی PMF56 داشتند. اما مقادیر RMSE و MAE برای هر الگو متفاوت بود. الگوی MBC کمترین RMSE و MAE و الگوی PT بیشترین مقدار RMSE و MAE را داشت. با توجه به یافته های این پژوهش می‌توان گفت که الگوی HS ، الگوی نسبتاً مناسبی برای برآورد ET0 در این ایستگاه همدید است.

کلیدواژه‌ها

• تبخیر و تعرق مرجع
• تحلیل حساسیت
• ضریب حساسیت
• شبیه سازی مونت-کارلو

20.1001.1.20084757.1394.28.6.5.5

عنوان مقاله [English]

Sensitivity Analysis of ETo for Five Current Models Using Monte-Carlo Simulation Case study: Bojnourd Synoptic Station

نویسندگان [English]

• M. Makari
• B. Ghahraman
• S.H. Sanaeinejad

Ferdowsi University of Mashhad

چکیده [English]

The objective of this study is to analyze the sensitivity of ETo for five models including FAO-Penman-Monteith, modified Blaney-Criddle, Hargreaves, Hargreaves-Samani and Priestley –Taylor. Daily meteorological data of Bojnourd synoptic station including air temperature, relative humidity, actual duration sunshine and wind velocity were used for sensitivity analysis of five models. In order to produce random data at a specific range, Monte-Carlo simulation was performed. Annual and seasonal were calculated to indicate the sensitivity of ETo in simultaneous variations of meteorological variables in each model.The results obtained in this study showed that the sensitivity of in simultaneous variations of meteorological variables is higher in summer. In all models, the most sensitivity was seen in summer and spring and the least sensitivity was occurred in autumn and winter. Among the studied models, FAO-PM and BC models had the most annual sensitivity and PT model had the least annual sensitivity. All of the models had fairly high correlation coefficient with FAO-PM model but the quantity of and was different in each model. BC model had the most and the least and was seen in and PT. According to the findings in this study, it can be concluded that SH model is fairly suitable for estimation of in synoptic station.

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

• Reference evapotranspiration
• sensitivity analysis
• Sensitivity Coefficient
• Monte-Carlo Simulation

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