majid montaseri; sarvin zamanzad ghavidel
Abstract
Introduction: A total dissolved solid (TDS) is an important indicator for water quality assesment. Since the composition of mineral salts and discharge affects the TDS of water, it is important to understand the relationships of mineral salts composition with TDS.
Materials and Methods: In this study, ...
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Introduction: A total dissolved solid (TDS) is an important indicator for water quality assesment. Since the composition of mineral salts and discharge affects the TDS of water, it is important to understand the relationships of mineral salts composition with TDS.
Materials and Methods: In this study, methods of artificial neural networks with five different training algorithm,Levenberg-Marquardt (LM), Scaled Conjugate Gradient (SCG), Fletcher Conjugate Gradient (CGF), One Step Secant (OSS) and Gradient descent with adaptive learning rate backpropagation(GDA)algorithm and adaptive Neurofuzzy inference system based on Subtractive Clustering were used to model water quality properties of Zarrineh River Basin, to be developed in total dissolved solids prediction. ANN and ANFIS program code were written in MATLAB language. Here, the ANN with one hidden layer was used and the hidden nodes’ number was determined using trial and error. Different activation functions (logarithm sigmoid, tangent sigmoid and linear) were tried for the hidden and output nodes. Therefore, water quality data from seven hydrometer stationswere used during the statistical period of 18years (1993-2010).In this research, the study period was divided into two periods of dry and wet flow, and then in a preliminary statistical analysis, the main parameters affecting the estimation of the TDS are determined and isused for modeling. 75% of data are used for remaining and 25% of the data are used for evaluation of the model, randomly. In this paper, three statistical evaluation criteria, correlation coefficient (R), the root mean square error (RMSE) and mean absolute error (MAE) were used to assess models’ performances.
Results and Discussion: By applying correlation coefficients method between the parameters of water quality and discharge with total dissolved solid in two periods, wet and dry periods, the significant (at 95% level) variables entered into the model were Q, HCO3., Cl, So4, Ca, Na and Mg. The optimal ANN (LM) architecture used in this study consists of an input layer with seven inputs, one hidden and output layer with two and five neurons for dry and wet periods, respectively. Similar ANN(LM), ANFIS-SC model had the best performance. It is clear that the ANFIS with 0/72 and 0/58 radii value has the highest R and the lowest RMSE for dry and wet periods, respectively. Comparing the ANFIS-SC estimations with the measured data for the test stage demonstrates a high generalization capacity of the model, with relatively low error and high correlation. From the scatter plots it is obviously seen that the ANFIS-SC predictions are closer to the corresponding measured TDS than other models in two periods. As seen from the best straight line equations (assume the equation as y=ax) in the scatter plots that the coefficient for ANFIS-SC is closer to 1 than other models. In addition ANFIS-SC performancedwith the correlation coefficients in dry and wet periods, respectively 0.975 , 0.969 and with Root-mean-square errors, respectively 34.41 , 23.85 in order to predict dissolved solids (TDS) in the rivers of Zarrineh River Basin. The obtained results showed the efficiency of the applied models in simulating the nonlinear behavior of TDS variations in terms of performance indices. The results are also tested by using t test for verifying the robustness of the models at 99% significance level. Comparison results indicated that the poorest model in TDS simulation was ANN-GDAin dry and wet periods, especially in test period. The observed relationship between residuals and model computed TDS values shows complete independence and random distribution. It is further supported by the respective correlations for ANFIS-SC models (R2 = 0.0012 for dry period and R2 = 0.0214 for wet period) which are negligible small. Plots of the residuals versus model computed values can be more informative regarding model fitting to a data set. If the residuals appear to behave randomly it suggests that the model fits the data well. On the other hand, if non- random distribution is evident in the residuals, the model does not fit the data adequately. On the base of these results, we propose ANFIS-SC and ANN (LM) methods as effective tools for the computation of total dissolved solids in river water, respectively.
Conclusion: It can be concluded that the ANN with Levenberg-Marquardt training algorithm and ANFIS-SC models can be considered as promising tools for forecasting TDS values, based on water quality parameters. With attention to the aim of current research that is presenting the feasibility of artificial intelligence techniques for modeling TDS values, it is notable that the results presented in this paper are for research purpose and applying the abstained results for real-world needs some complicated steps and building artificial intelligences methods, based on complete data and parameters maybe affected the TDS values
sarvin zamanzad ghavidel; K. Zeinalzadeh
Abstract
Introduction: A total dissolved solid (TDS) is an important indicator for water quality assessment. Since the composition of mineral salts and discharge affects the TDS of water, it is important to understand the relationship of mineral salts composition with TDS.
Materials and Methods: In this study, ...
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Introduction: A total dissolved solid (TDS) is an important indicator for water quality assessment. Since the composition of mineral salts and discharge affects the TDS of water, it is important to understand the relationship of mineral salts composition with TDS.
Materials and Methods: In this study, methods of artificial neural networks with Levenberg-Marquardt training algorithm, adaptive neuro fuzzy inference system based on Subtractive Clustering and Gene expression programming were used to model water quality properties of Zarrineh River Basin at upstream of Boukan dam, to be developed in total dissolved solids prediction. ANN and ANFIS programs code were written using MATLAB programming language. Here, the ANN with one hidden layer was used and the hidden nodes’ number was determined using trial and error. Different activation functions (logarithm sigmoid, tangent sigmoid and linear) were tried for the hidden and output nodes and the GeneXpro Tools 4.0 were used to obtain the equation of the best models. Therefore, water quality data from two hydrometer stations, namely Anyan and Safakhaneh hydrometer stations were used during the statistical period of 18 years (1389-1372). In this research, for selecting input variables to the data driven models the stepwise regression method was used. In the application, 75% of data set were used for training and the remaining, 25% of data set were used for testing, randomly. In this paper, three statistical evaluation criteria, correlation coefficient (R), the root mean square error (RMSE) and mean absolute error (MAE), were used to assess model’s performances.
Results and Discussion: By applying stepwise method, the first significant (at 95% level) variable entered to the model was the HCO3. The second variable that entered to the model was Ca. The third and fourth ones were Na and Q respectively. Mg was finally entered to the model. The optimal ANN architecture used in this study consists of an input layer with five inputs, one hidden and output layer with three and two neurons for Anyan and Safakhaneh hydrometer stations, respectively. Similar ANN, ANFIS-SC5 model had the best performance. It is clear that the ANFIS with 0/4 and 0/7 radii value has the highest R and the lowest RMSE for Anyan and Safakhaneh hydrometer stations, respectively. Various GEP models have been developed using the input combinations similar ANN and ANFIS models. Comparing the GEP5 estimations with the measured data for the test stage demonstrates a high generalization capacity of the model, with relatively low error and high correlation. From the scatter plots it is obviously seen that the GEP5 predictions are closer to the corresponding measured TDS than other models. As seen from the best straight line equations (assume the equation as y=ax) in the scatter plots that the a coefficient for GEP5 is closer to 1 than other models. In addition to previous operation, Gene expression programming offered mathematical relationships in the stations of Anyan and Safakhane with the correlation coefficients, respectively 0.962 , 0.971 and with Root-mean-square errors, respectively 12.82 , 29.08 in order to predict dissolved solids (TDS) in the rivers located at upstream of the dam. The obtained results showed the efficiency of the applied models in simulating the nonlinear behavior of TDS variations in terms of performance indices. Overall, the GEP model outperformed the other models. For all of applied models, the best result was obtained by application of input combination (5) including HCO3, Ca, Na, Q and Mg. The results are also tested by using t test for verifying the robustness of the models at 95% significance level. Comparison results indicated that the poorest model in TDS simulation was ANN especially in test period. The observed relationship between residuals and model computed TDS values shows complete independence and random distribution. It is further supported by the respective correlations for GEP5 models (R2 = 0.0011 for Anyan station and R2 = 0.0123 for safakhaneh station) which are negligible small. Plots of the residuals versus model computed values can be more informative regarding model fitting to a data set. If the residuals appear to behave randomly it suggests that the model fits the data well. On the other hand, if non- random distribution is evident in the residuals, the model does not fit the data adequately. On the base of these results, we propose GEP, ANFIS-SC and ANN methods as effective tools for the computation of total dissolved solids in river water, respectively.
Conclusion: It can be concluded that the ANN, ANFIS-GP, ANFIS-SC and GEP models can be considered as promising tools for forecasting TDS values, based on water quality parameters. It is notable from the results that the prediction accuracy of all applied models increases by increasing the number of input combinations. With attention to the aim of current research that is presenting the feasibility of artificial intelligence techniques for modeling TDS values, it is notable that the results presented in this paper are for research purpose and applying the abstained results for real-world needs some complicated steps and building artificial intelligences methods, based on complete data and parameters maybe affected the TDS values.
sarvin ghavidel; sarvin zamanzad ghavidel
Abstract
Forecasts of streamflows are required for many activities associated with the planning and operation of components in a water resource system. This paper demonstrates the application of two different intelligent approaches including adaptive neuro-fuzzy (ANFIS) based on grid partition and Gene Expression ...
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Forecasts of streamflows are required for many activities associated with the planning and operation of components in a water resource system. This paper demonstrates the application of two different intelligent approaches including adaptive neuro-fuzzy (ANFIS) based on grid partition and Gene Expression Programming (GEP) for the prediction of monthly streamflows. In the first part of the study, ANFIS and GEP models were used in one-month ahead streamflow forecasting and the results were evaluated. Monthly run-off data of 21 years from two stations, the Safakhaneh Station on the Sarough-Chay Stream and the Senteh Station on the Kherkherh-Chay Stream in the Zarrineh-rud Basin of Iran were used in the study. The effect of periodicity on the model’s forecasting performance was also investigated. By application of periodicity coefficient in GEP model, determination coefficient in the case of the best input combination for Safakhaneh and Senteh increased 0.19 and 0.25, respectively. In the second part of the study, the performance of the ANFIS and GEP techniques was tested for streamflow estimation using data from the nearby river. The results indicated that the GEP and ANFIS models could be employed successfully in forecasting streamflow. In this case, for the best input combination, root mean square error (RMSE) for ANFIS and GEP obtained equal to 4.88 and 4.89 respectively. However, GEP is superior to ANFIS in giving explicit expressions for the problem.
hadi sanikhani; yaghoub dinpazhoh; sarvin zamanzad ghavidel
Abstract
Changes in temperature and precipitation patterns have serious impacts on the quantity and quality of water resources, especially in arid regions such Iran. In recent years, frequent droughts have threatened the water resources in Iran. Because of the increasing demand for water, studying the impacts ...
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Changes in temperature and precipitation patterns have serious impacts on the quantity and quality of water resources, especially in arid regions such Iran. In recent years, frequent droughts have threatened the water resources in Iran. Because of the increasing demand for water, studying the impacts of climate change on water resources is necessary. In this study, the impacts of climate changes on run-off in Ajichay watershed, located in East Azerbaijn were considered. To predict the climate change based on the General Circulation Models (GCM), the LARS-WG tool for downscaling was used. By using LARS-WG, climate change in Ajichay watershed by applying HADCM3 model and three emission scenarios, A1B, A2 and B1 in 2055 horizon was investigated. The results show a rise in temperature and reduction in precipitation. In the other part of the research, for simulationofthe impacts of climate change on watershed run-off, Gene Expression Programming (GEP) was used. The results indicated that significant reduction in run-off. With regarding the results of this research, for adaptation with climate change, it is necessary to consider suitable management action in this watershed.
