F. Modaresi; Sh. Araghinejad; K. Ebrahimi; M. Kholghy
Abstract
Abstract
Climate change means a significant change in the long-term weather of a region in comparison with what has been observed during a long term period. Precipitation and minimum and maximum temperature are three variables which are affected directly by the climate change. Furthermore, the water ...
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Abstract
Climate change means a significant change in the long-term weather of a region in comparison with what has been observed during a long term period. Precipitation and minimum and maximum temperature are three variables which are affected directly by the climate change. Furthermore, the water yield of a river is one of the most important hydrological variables of a Basin which is affected by variations of the climate variables. In this research, the mentioned variables have been used to assess the climate change, and precipitation, the most important factor affecting water yield, has been used to investigate the climate change effect on the water yield of the river. A conditional probability distribution function has been used to determine the quantity of the annual water yield of a river. This approach gives a variation range demonstrating the error existing in the results. In this paper, the Gorganroud basin is selected as the case study. Precipitation and minimum and maximum temperature of the basin during the 1977-2006 have been compared with the output of scenarios of all Global Circulation models to select the most appropriate model to forecast the future climate of this basin. The obtained results show that the scenario B2 of HadCM3 model is the most appropriate scenario for this case study. If this scenario happen in the next 30 years, the quantity of water yield in Tamr station adjacent to Gorganroud river, located upstream of Boostan, Golestan and Voshmgir dams, will decrease 1.38% and 1.33% in water yield volume of return periods of 50 and 100 years, respectively. But, if the existing trend in historical data continues in the next 30 years, the quantity of water yield at this station will increase 14.94% and 14.55% in water yield volume of return periods of 50 and 100 years, respectively.
Keywords: Water yield, Climate change, Conditional probability distribution function, Gorganroud
F. Modaresi; Sh. Araghinejad; K. Ebrahimi; M. Kholghy
Abstract
Abstract
Despite the significance of climate change assessment on regional planning of a basin, most of the previous researches have been focused on the point assessment of this phenomenon. This paper uses statistical tests as well as regional assessment to investigate the impact of climate change on ...
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Abstract
Despite the significance of climate change assessment on regional planning of a basin, most of the previous researches have been focused on the point assessment of this phenomenon. This paper uses statistical tests as well as regional assessment to investigate the impact of climate change on the Gorganroud-Gharehsou basin. In this regard, various tests including Man-Kendall, Cumulating Deviation, and Worsley’s Liklyhood Ratio Test have been applied to recognize the homogeneity and probable trend of seasonal and annual rainfall as well as max and min temperature data in the period of 1977 through 2006. Then, the results were generalized over the basin to result in the regions affected by the climate change impact. The results show that first: Non-homogen time series (sig.99%) have been trends (sig.95%). Second: an increasing trend in Autumn and Anuual rainfall in the north-east of the basin (sig.90%). Furthermore, the climate change is demonstrated in the basin by increasing the minimum and maximum temperature during the summer and winter seasons (sig.95%).
Keywords: Climate Change, Regional assessment, Homogeneity, Trend, Gorganroud-Gharehsou
