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مونا احمدیان مجید منتصری

چکیده

سیستم مخازن ذخیره برای کنترل و تنظیم رژیم جریان رودخانه­ها جهت تأمین تقاضا برای مصارف مختلف شرب، کشاورزی و . . . طراحی و احداث می‏گردند. در این مطالعه سد مخزنی لار به‏عنوان یکی از منابع اصلی تأمین آب شرب تهران با استفاده از روش شبیه‏سازی مونت‏کارلو مورد تجزیه و تحلیل قرار گرفته ‏است. بدین منظور با به‏کارگیری مدل استوکاستیک AR(1)، داده‏های جریان سالیانه تولید و سپس مقادیر جریان سالیانه با استفاده از مدل توزیعی والنسیا-شاکی در ماه‏های مختلف سال پخش یا توزیع شده ‏است. در مرحله بعد، داده‏های ماهیانه تولیدی به‏عنوان جریانات ورودی به مخزن ذخیره برای شبیه‏سازی رفتار سد مخزنی لار با استفاده از روش 3Modified-SPA و با اعمال شاخص‏های عملکرد سیستم مخازن به‏کار گرفته شد. نتایج مطالعه نشان می‏دهد که حجم ذخیره علاوه بر تقاضا، تابعی از تلفات ناشی از تبخیر و ضرایب اعتماد زمانی و آسیب‏پذیری بوده و از یک رابطه نمایی به‏ازای تقاضا تبعیت می‏کند. علاوه بر این در هر سه گونه‏ (version) SPAهای اصلاح شده (SPA-I, SPA-II, and SPA-III) دو شاخص عملکرد مخزن، یعنی؛ اعتمادپذیری زمانی و آسیب‏پذیری قابل کنترل در تحلیل بوده و تحلیل سیستم ذخیره برای مقادیر معلوم یا مشخص شاخص‏های مذکور انجام می‏پذیرد. همچنین در روش‏های SPA-II و  SPA-III امکان استفاده از رابطه غیرخطی یا رابطه واقعی سطح-حجم در برآورد حجم تلفات ناشی از تبخیر در سیستم ذخیره است. کنترل دو شاخص عملکرد مخزن و به‏کارگیری رابطه واقعی یا غیرخطی سطح-حجم مخزن در تحلیل سیستم مخازن ذخیره به‏همراه جواب یکتا به‏عنوان مزیت‏های اساسی و بسیار مهم روش‏های مذکور نسبت به روش آنالیز رفتاری (فرض خطی بودن رابطه سطح-حجم مخزن و کنترل تنها شاخص اعتمادپذیری در محاسبات) است.

جزئیات مقاله

کلمات کلیدی

تولید داده, روش SPA, سد مخزنی لار, شبیه¬سازی مخزن, مدل استوکاستیک

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ارجاع به مقاله
احمدیانم., & منتصریم. (2019). بررسی عملکرد سیستم مخازن ذخیره منفرد با استفاده از شاخص‏های عملکرد (مطالعه موردی: سد مخزنی لار). آب و خاک, 33(6), 795-809. https://doi.org/10.22067/jsw.v33i6.77839
نوع مقاله
علمی - پژوهشی