Document Type : Research Article
Authors
1 Sari Agricultural Science and Natural Resources University
2 Sari Agricultural and Natural Resources University
Abstract
In this study, impact of climate change on net irrigation requirement (In) and yield of Rice Crop using HadCM3 climate projection model, one of the AOGCM models, in Tajan Plain area is evaluated. Changes in temperature and precipitation were simulated run under the IPCC scenario A2 for 2011-2040, 2041-2070 and 2071-2100 periods. This work was done by using statistical and proportional downscaling techniques. For estimating Net Irrigation Requirement, Potential evapotranspiration (ETo) and effective rainfall (Pe) were calculated using Penman Monteith equation and USDA method With Cropwat Model, respectively. Impact of water deficit on crop yield was estimated using the linear crop-water production function developed by FAO. The results of downscaling by using SDSM model and proportional method indicate that the decrease in rainfall and increase in the temperature are in future periods. CROPWAT model results indicate that the effect of climate change with increased Potential evapotranspiration and decreased effective Rainfall and increased water consumption of the plant, can be increased, the net irrigation requirement of rice plants in the basin duration years future to come by the year 2100. As a result of climate change and rising temperatures and reduced rainfall, the yield reduction percent to low levels to rise in the coming years. So it can be conclude that the effect of climate change closer to the year 2100 when effective rainfall is less could provide water consumption and net irrigation requirement of rice in the area.
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