Document Type : Research Article
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Abstract
During the last decades, urbanization expansion and industrial activities in large cities have led to remarkable changes in weather and local climate. Nowadays, analysis of meteorology data and also using them in programming the development of habitation centers are of importance and climate situation affects people’s comfort. In fact, by recognition of city’s climate conditions in different months of the year and analysis of meteorology data, construction of climate comfort is possible. In this study, the monthly data of 4 climate factors (temperature average, minimum temperature, maximum temperature & relative humidity) from Aabadan’s meteorology station over 60 years (1330-1389) have been used. Using regression process, incongruity of data was evaluated and data’s homogeneity was studied by sequences’ examination. Then, using Mahani comfortable climate model, suitable months for convenience of human physiology in 6 ten-year periods were determined. Then, using Box–Jenkins models time series for 3 factors of climate, minimum temperature, maximum temperature and relative humidity is studied and the best model is fitted. Then, using suggested models, the next 10 years of any climate factor was predicted and the next years were studied from the viewpoint of comfortable climate using Mahani model. The results of this study indicated that based on Akaike criterion, the best Box–Jenkins model for minimum temperature is ARIMA (1,1,1)×(0,1,2)¹² model, for maximum temperature is ARIMA (0,1,2)× (0,1,1)¹² model and for relative humidity is ARIMA (1,1,1)×(0,1,1)¹² model. As for nightly comfortable climate, temperature has increased in Bahman, Esfand, Farvardin and Ordibehesht months. Temperature has decreased in Mordad, Shahrivar an Mehr months. As for daily convenience climate, temperature has increased in Dey, Bahman, Aazar and Esfand months, and temperature has decreased in Mehr month.
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