Forecasting River flow By Bilinear Nonlinear Time Series Model (Case Study : Barandoz-Chay & Shahar-Chai Rivers)

Document Type : Research Article

Authors

• H. Naveh
• K. Khalili
• M. T. Alami
• J. Behmanesh

https://doi.org/10.22067/jsw.v1391i0.17074

Abstract

One of the important tools in modeling and forecasting of hydrological processes, is using and analysis of time series. The generated river flow series by using time series models have been used in many researches such as drought, flood periods, reservoir systems design and other purposes. The use of nonlinear time series is very useful in river flow forecasting because of nonlinear river flow behavior in different spatial and time scales. The purpose of this study is to investigate the efficiency of bilinear nonlinear time series model in river flow forecasting. In this research monthly flow of Shahar-Chai and Barandouz-Chai rivers located in West Azarbaijan for duration of 31 and 39 years respectively were used. Despite of simplicity of bilinear nonlinear model, the results showed that this model had high efficiency in modeling and forecasting of two rivers and presented best results from ARMA model. The error of fitted model of Barandouz-Chai (1.605) was less than the model fitted for Shahar-Chai river (1.920). The reason may be due to longer data period for Barandouz-Chai river or it’s recharge from springs and ground waters.

Keywords

• ARMA model
• Bilinear model
• forecasting
• Nonlinear
• River discharge