پیش‌نگری تغییرات قلمروی کشت خرمای گنطار و حلاوی در ایران در قرن بیست و یکم

نوع مقاله : مقالات پژوهشی

نویسندگان

• سیده مریم افضلی ¹
• جواد خوشحال دستجردی ²
• عزیز تراهی ³

¹ دانشجوی دکتری آب و هواشناسی کشاورزی ، دانشکده علوم جغرافیایی و برنامه‌ریزی، دانشگاه اصفهان

² دانشیار، دانشکده علوم جغرافیایی و برنامه‌ریزی، دانشگاه اصفهان

³ استادیار پژوهشکده خرما و میوه های گرمسیری

https://doi.org/10.22067/jsw.2021.72036.1083

چکیده

یکی از مسائل مهم کنونی بشر تولید مواد غذایی بیشتر برای جمعیت رو به رشد جهان است. اقلیم هر منطقه اهمیت بسزایی در بخش کشاورزی و میزان تولیدات آن دارد. کشور ایران یکی از کشورهای خرماخیز جهان است که از نظر تولید و صادرات خرما در جهان، رتبه دوم را دارا می‌باشد. این گیاه دارای ۲۰۰ جنس و ۴۰۰۰ گونه است که هر کدام توانایی تطبیق با منطقه‌ای از مناطق خشک را دارد و می‌تواند در محل مناسب خود بیشترین تولید و بازده اقتصادی را داشته باشد. با توجه به پدیده‌ی گرمایش جهانی و چالش‌های پیش‌آمده ناشی از آن، برنامه‌ریزان در تلاش هستند با آگاهی از شرایط اقلیمی کنونی و آتی و انتخاب گیاهان پایا با عمر طولانی‌تر حداکثر بازدهی اقتصادی را از هر منطقه به دست آورند. لذا یکی از بهترین مدل‌ها جهت شناخت رویشگاه‌های بالقوه کشت، مدل حداکثر آنتروپی است. در تحقیق حاضر، مدل CCSM4 با سناریوهای RCP2.6، RCP4.5، RCP6.0 و RCP8.5 برای پیش‌نگری و استعدادیابی مناطق مختلف کشور برای دو رقم خرمای حلاوی و گنطار انتخاب و مورد استفاده قرار گرفته است. نتایج نشان داد که پراکنش و سطح زیر کشت ارقام خرمای گنطار و حلاوی متفاوت است و در دوره‌های آتی سطح مطلوب کشت رقم گنطار کاهش و سطح مطلوب کشت رقم حلاوی افزایش خواهد یافت. آزمون جک‌نایف نشان داد که این مدل در پیش‌بینی قلمرو مطلوب کشت بر اساس معیار سطح زیر نمودار (⁴AUC) موفق بوده است (بالاتر از ۹۰/۰).

کلیدواژه‌ها

• آنتروپی حداکثر (MaxEnt)
• ایران
• حلاوی
• گنطار
• مدل CCSM4
• مطلوبیت قلمرو کشت

20.1001.1.20084757.1400.35.6.10.5

موضوعات

• هواشناسی کشاورزی

عنوان مقاله [English]

Predicting Changes in Cultivation of Gantar and Halawi Dates in Iran in the 21st Century

نویسندگان [English]

• S.M. Afzali ¹
• J. Khoshhal Dastjerdi ²
• A. Torahi ³

¹ Ph.D. Candidate in Agricultural Meteorology Faculty of Geography and Planning, University of Isfahan

² Associate Professor, Faculty of Geography and Planning, University of Isfahan

³ Assistant Professor of Date Palm and Tropical Fruits Research Institute

چکیده [English]

Introduction: One of the most critical human issues globally is producing more food for the world's growing population. The climate of each region is an effective factor in the agricultural sector and the amount of its production. Iran is one of the world's date-producing countries, which ranks second in terms of date production and exports. This plant has 200 genera and 4000 species, each of which can adapt to arid regions and can have the highest production and economic efficiency in its proper place. It is a monocotyledonous plant from the Palmaceae family that needs at least 10 degrees Celsius for continued growth. Growth will stop at temperatures below 10 degrees Celsius, and temperatures below 4 degrees Celsius will encounter cold stress. This plant is sensitive to environmental conditions and cannot live qualitatively and quantitatively in all hot and dry regions. On the other hand, the palm tree is a plant that lives up to several hundred years, and some of its varieties bear fruit up to 200 years old, but their valuable and economic life is on average about 50 years. It is noteworthy that this tree did not produce an economic crop until ten years ago. Dates have an important role in currency exchange, job creation, food security, and strengthening global competitiveness by providing income from non-oil exports. Therefore, the construction of a palm tree is a risky long-term investment in the country. Dates have different varieties, each capable of adapting to a region of arid regions and can produce the most production and economic efficiency in its proper location. Global warming, its impact on different regions of the earth in the future, and the response of the living creatures of these regions in the last century have led planners and scientists of many disciplines, especially climatology researchers, and in particular agricultural climatologists, to understand climate conditions and design long-lived sustainable plants that can survive in future environmental conditions and have good economic returns, design programs, and awareness algorithms.
Materials and Methods: One of the best is the maximum entropy model (MaxEnt). By applying this algorithm, it can be predicted how the species will exist in different regions based on the presence of the species. The present study was conducted by field method, descriptive, and library statistics. The data used included WordClim site data (bioclimatic variables), presence data of two cultivars of date palm, Gantar and Halawi, daily meteorological data, elevation, and land slope based on the suitable land slope for palm tree cultivation, high and low temperatures, and phonological data. CCSM4 model with quadratic scenarios of 2.6, 4.5, 6.0, and 8.5 was used to predict and estimate different country regions in terms of talent for cultivation of two selected date varieties. Due to the higher value of AUC in Scenario 4.5, this scenario was considered as the selected scenario. This study is different from previous studies using the CCSM4 climatic model, new diffusion scenarios (RCP), and prediction of date distribution concerning its cultivars, while previous studies on prediction of date distribution have not paid any attention to it.
Results and Discussion: The results showed that the distribution and cultivation area of Gantar and Halawi are different, and in the future, the suitable area of cultivation of Gantar cultivar will decrease, and the suitable area of cultivation of Halawi cultivar will increase. Jacknife test showed that the model successfully predicted the potential of cultivation area based on the AUC criterion and temperature-related biological variables (Bio 1, Bio 6, Bio 8, and Bio 10) had the most significant impact on the distribution modeling of cultivars. Therefore, with the rising temperature, parts of the country, especially the foothills of the plains, become more susceptible to cultivation. So that at present, when the maximum height for the optimal growth of cultivars is about 700 meters, it will reach about 1200 meters in the coming decades. At present, Iranshahr city in Sistan and Baluchestan province has the most desirable area of Gantar and Halawi cultivar cultivation. However, in the next decade, the most desirable cultivation area will be the Gontar cultivar in Ahvaz city and Halawi cultivar in Jask city. It was also found that using WorldClim site data for perennial and especially long-lived plants was not sufficient. Because in these data, high and low temperatures that can destroy the plant during its life or shorten its life and reduce the economic fruit of cultivation are not included, and of course gardening and fruit trees are a long-term investment. The risk of investing should not be increased.

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

• CCSM4 model
• Cultivation area suitability
• Iran
• Gantar
• Halawi
• MaxEnt entropy

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