عنوان مقاله [English]
Introduction: It is possible to guide the agricultural experts to achieve a suitable genotype and adapt to climatic conditions in proportion to the length of the modified growing season by identifying the impact of climate change in recent years on the cumulative rate of degree-days of plant growth. This will prevent the waste of capital and agricultural inputs and ultimately prevent the reduction of the final crop due to the mismatch of genotype-crop with the current climate. In the present study, an attempt has been made to study and compare the trend in the start and end of the growing season, the growing season length (GSL), and growing degree-days(GDD) during 1959-2018 in the elevated and coastal areas of Iran.
Materials and Methods: For this study, the daily temperature of 27 synoptic stations were used including 19 stations in elevated areas and 8 stations in coastal areas during 1959-2018. The first day with a minimum daily temperature equal to or greater than 0, 5, and 10 °C was considered as the start of the growing season (SGS). Moreover, the first day after the start of the growing season which has a minimum daily temperature of less than 0, 5, and 10 °C was considered as the end of the growing season (EGS). Trend analysis was performed in time series of GSL and GDD based on thresholds of 0, 5, and 10 °C using the Mann-Kendall test. To compare the results, the statistical period of 60 years was divided into two periods of 30 years (1959-1988 and 1989-2018). In both periods, the statistical characteristics of the GSL and GDD based on the three thresholds mentioned in coastal and elevated areas were surveyed and compared. In this study, deviation from the mean was used to complete the study of changes in the GSL. This index shows the scatter of data around the mean.
Results and Discussion: The GSL extension came from both the advance in SGS and the delay in EGS. Comparison results of the two 30-year periods (1959-1988 and 1989-2018) showed that during 1989-2018, in most stations the GSL has increased. During this period, based on 0 °C, the earliest and latest SGS were on February 24 and April 30 in Yazd and Shahrekord, respectively. Accordingly, the earliest and latest EGS were on October 15 and December 11 in Shahrekord and Gorgan, respectively. Based on 5 °C, the earliest and latest SGS were on February 10 and June 2 in Abadan and Gorgan, respectively. Accordingly, the earliest and latest EGS on September 17 and December 6 were at Shahrekord, Bam, and Abadan, respectively. Based on 10 °C, the earliest and latest SGS was on February 11 and June 20 at stations, respectively. Accordingly, the earliest and latest EGS were on August 27 and December 8 in Shahrekord and Bushehr, respectively. The shortest and longest GSLs based on all three thresholds of 0, 5, and 10 °C were Shahrekord and Bandar Abbas, respectively. The highest and lowest coefficient of variation of GSL were 20.8% in Zanjan and 4.9% in Bandar Abbas, respectively. Based on 0, 5, and 10 °C, the lowest GDDs in GSL are 3233, 1767, and 880 °C.d, respectively, and all of them were obtained at Shahrekord. On the other hand, the highest GDD0, GDD5, and GDD10 in GSL were 6783, 7372, and 5761 °C.d, respectively, in Yazd, Abadan, and Bandar Abbas. The most significant trend in GSL was in Zanjan, Zahedan, and Khorramabad.
Conclusion: Examination of changes in the GSL indicates the existence of a significant trend in a limited number of stations. Also, with increasing the threshold from 0 to 5 and from 5 to 10 °C, there is a significant decreasing trend in more stations. At the threshold of 10 °C a significant and decreasing trend of GSL was observed in Urmia, Sanandaj, Khorramabad, Birjand, and Bandar Abbas stations, In following, a significant increasing trend was observed in Tabriz, Tehran, Kermanshah, Isfahan, Yazd, and Bushehr stations. The results of the studies showed fewer changes in the time series of the GSL based on thresholds of 0 and 5 °C in the statistical period of 1989-2018. On the other hand, the results showed that the GSL trend is significant in more stations in the recent period based on the threshold of 10 °C. Deviation from the average GSL in coastal areas was greater than the elevated areas so that the GSL based on 10 °C in both areas increased with greater slope and continuity. This increasing trend of deviation from the average in the coastal areas from the early '70s and the elevated areas from the early '90s and continues until now. In this regard, Bandar Abbas station and then Bushehr station had the longest GSL, and Shahrekord station had the shortest GSL among other stations which has been studied. Comparison of GDDs of the GSL during 1989-2018 showed the decrease of GDDs from south to north and from west to east of the country. Accordingly, in the southern stations of the country, the conditions for tropical plants (threshold of 10 °C) have become more suitable than the cold stations of the west and northwest, Time series analysis of the average annual GDDs based on the three thresholds during 1989-2018 showed a significant increasing (positive) trend in 93% of the stations. During the second 30-years period, Shahrekord and Shiraz stations did not show a significant trend in all three mentioned thresholds. However, the analysis of the annual average of GDDs during 1959-1988 showed the trend in 41% of the stations. According to the results of this study, it can be concluded that in cold regions, due to the increase in GDDs, the supply of cooling units for plants with certain cooling needs is more difficult. In the south of the country, as the total required GDD is achieved earlier, the GSL gets shorter, and therefore less dry biomass will accumulate in the product. This likely leads to a reduction in crop yields in this part of the country.