Hamid Kardan Moghaddam; Mohammad Ebrahim Banihabib
Abstract
Introduction: Due to the increase in water consumption resulting from climate change and rapid population growth, overexploitation of groundwater resources take place particularly in arid regions. This increased consumption and reduced groundwater quality is a major problem especially in arid areas of ...
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Introduction: Due to the increase in water consumption resulting from climate change and rapid population growth, overexploitation of groundwater resources take place particularly in arid regions. This increased consumption and reduced groundwater quality is a major problem especially in arid areas of concern among water resources managers and planners. The use of modern simulation tools to evaluate the performance of an aquifer could help the managers and planners to decide. In this research, finite difference method was used to simulate the behavior of the quality and quantity of groundwater.
Materials and Methods: Increasing the concentration of salts in the groundwater aquifers intensifies with severe water withdrawing and causes the uplift of salt water in aquifers. This is much more severe in adjacent aquifers of saline aquifers in deserts and coastal areas. Front influx of saltwater into freshwater aquifers causes interference and disturbance in water quality and complex hydro-chemical reactions occurs in the joint border area including the process of cation, groundwater flow, the reduction of sulfate, the reaction of Carbonatic and changes in the dolomitic calcite. Sarayan Aquifer has a negative balance and the annual groundwater table drawdown of 62 cm.
In this study, Total Dissolved Solids (TDS) as a groundwater quality factor was simulated to investigate the effect of the overexploitation on the saline interface of desert aquifer using MT3D module of GMS model for a period of 5 years with time steps of 6 months. One of the most important steps of the simulation of groundwater quality is to use qualitative model to predict the groundwater level which in this study were performed by quantitative models in two steady and unsteady flow states with time steps of 6 months The four basic steps of a proper modeling of the groundwater quality are sensitivity analysis of the input parameters, calibration of the sensitive parameters of the model, validation of the time step and groundwater quality forecast for the future periods. These modeling steps were carried out for steady and unsteady states by GMS software.
Aquifer hydraulic conductivity and the specific yield of aquifers were selected as two critical parameters of quantitative model in steady and unsteady states. The model was calibrated based on these two parameters and then using pest method, the value of these parameters was finalized. In order to evaluate the response of the aquifer to different periods of droughts, the verification of the model was conducted during the ten periods. The results show that observed water level has suitable correlation with simulated water level. In the same period, the simulation of water quality for TDS parameter carried out using the results of the quantitative model. After identification of sensitive parameters in the model, calibration of the model was carried out taking into account the factor of 0.5 for the ratio of horizontal to vertical distribution, vertical diffusion length of 0.2, 1 meter for effective molecular diffusion coefficient, and 20 for longitudinal diffusion.
Results and Discussion: In the total area of the aquifer, the water demand of all sectors are supplied using groundwater resources. This water withdrawal trend exacerbated the decline in groundwater levels and reduced water quality. Also in the southern strip of the aquifer, there is a desert saline groundwater aquifer, which causes the intrusion of salt water to the aquifer and negative effects on its quality. The factors influencing the salinity of groundwater in the Sarayan Aquifer are geological formations, supplying the aquifer from salty formations in the region, evaporation from the shallow part of the aquifer especially in the southern strip that leaves salt and reducing the volume of water, existence of fine soil in the media of groundwater flow. Front influx is from saltwater desert aquifer to the Sarayan Aquifer. Due to the osmotic pressure of the soil layers in the aquifer, the pollutants transferred from the higher concentration to lower concentration and an influx of salt water into the aquifer will occur from outside of the aquifer. Since the direction of groundwater flow is from the north to the south of the aquifer and salt water intrusion is from the south to the north, the velocity of saltwater intrusion dropped so quickly water. However, overexploitation of groundwater and negative aquifer balance caused uplift of the salt water in aquifer.
Conclusion: Review of the result of forecasted TDS concentration in Sarayan Aquifer, shows an increase in TDS concentration. This increase indicates that there is no potential for more water withdrawing in the southern parts of the aquifer by urban and agricultureal sectors. The variaty of TDS changes between 712 mg/lit in the northern strip of the aquifer to 8500 mg/lit in the southern strip shows that due to the increased concentration of TDS, the border area of water users will be changed. The forecasting of the future status of aquifer water quality showed that continuing withdrawing of water intensifies salt water interference from the desert and concentration of TDS will increase during the next 5 years. To manage aquifer quality and quantity, three scenarios of water withdraw reduction were used. The results are shown restoration of the aquifer quality and quantity using these scenarios.
Therefore the result of this research shows that the management of groundwater is necessary to improve the quality of desert aquifers and prevent salt water interference from desert considering recent droughts.
Banafsheh Sheikhipour; Saman Javadi; Mohammad ebrahim Banihabib
Abstract
Introduction: Most part of Iran is located in an arid and semi-arid region, thus in most parts of a region; groundwater is the only water resource also Population growth, limitation of surface water resources and excessive water withdrawal from the aquifers, caused a sharp drop in groundwater level in ...
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Introduction: Most part of Iran is located in an arid and semi-arid region, thus in most parts of a region; groundwater is the only water resource also Population growth, limitation of surface water resources and excessive water withdrawal from the aquifers, caused a sharp drop in groundwater level in many plains of Iran such as Shahrekord plain, So it is necessary to have suitable management plans to improve the aquifer and evaluate some indicators to see the effects of the methods. In this research, many management plans were assessed for the case study.
Materials and Methods: A groundwater numerical flow model (GMS 10.2) was established by using the monthly data including hydraulic heads, depletion volume of the wells, springs and qanats, precipitation values in Shahrekord aquifer. The model was prepared and calibrated for both status of steady (October 2010) and unsteady flow (November 2010-October 2012), and verified for the following year (November 2012- October 2013). The final values of hydraulic conductivity and specific discharge were obtained by trial and error and PEST method. The water level fluctuation was predicted for three years later (until October 2016) by applying management scenarios of 5% and 10% reduction in water withdrawal, underground dam and artificial recharge. After that, two indicators of Sustainability Index and modified Water Exploitation Index (WEI+) were calculated to determine the effect of the scenarios. The Sustainability Index indicates the consumption ratio of natural resources to water demand. The optimal value of this Index is 1 and it may also have negative values. Low values of this index mean high usage of natural resources. The Water Exploitation Index shows to which extent the total water demand puts pressure on water resources. This index has positive values and its optimal value is close to zero. These two indicators were used for surface water resources in the past studies so in this article they were redefined for underground water resources.
Results and Discussion: The result of groundwater modeling shows that the hydraulic conductivity from 1 to 25 m/day and specific yield from 0.01 to 0.08 are varied also the result of prediction shows that the underground water level would be decreased about 1.34 meter per year in the next 3 years when it hadn’t any management plans in this area but after 5% and 10% reduction water withdrawal scenarios Decreasing of water level were, respectively, 1.33 and 0.71 meter for each year also, considering that there were more wells in the center of the aquifer, water level in this area increased more than other areas, after 5% and 10% Reduction scenarios. According to the results of the artificial recharge and underground dam storage prediction, groundwater head increased in upstream of underground dam and the area near the artificial recharge. Considering the results it was found that the current condition of the aquifer is inappropriate and the amount of withdrawal from the aquifer is more than its capacity. The amount of Water Exploitation Index for business as usual scenario equal to 1.068 and for underground dam, artificial recharge, 5% and 10% reduction water withdrawal, were, respectively, equal to 1.068, 1.061, 1.045 and 0.969. Also the amount of Sustainability Index for business as usual scenario equal to 0.071 and for the other scenario were 0.068, 0.071 and 0.114. , respectively.
Conclusion: Considering the values of the indicators, 10% reduction water withdrawal scenario improved both indicators and selected as the best scenario. After that, 5% reduction water withdrawal was in the second place, then the artificial recharge scenario and underground dam scenarios, respectively, were in the third and fourth place. The scenario of underground dam had any positive effect on these two indicate. Regarding the calculated values of the indicators, it can be seen that although management scenarios have improved these two indicators, the amounts obtained are also significantly different from their optimal values. Several management scenarios can be used simultaneously to bring the calculated index values closer to their optimal values. Used two indicators of sustainability and modified water exploitation can be used exploitation for other management scenarios and assess the performance of them for the other aquifers.
Hamid Kardan Moghaddam; Mohammad ebrahim banihabib; Saman Javadi
Abstract
Introduction: Groundwater is predominantly a renewable resource, and when managed properly can ensure a long-term water supply for increasing water demand and for climate change impacted region. Surface water renews as part of the hydrologic cycle in an average time period ranging from approximately ...
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Introduction: Groundwater is predominantly a renewable resource, and when managed properly can ensure a long-term water supply for increasing water demand and for climate change impacted region. Surface water renews as part of the hydrologic cycle in an average time period ranging from approximately 16 days (rivers) to 17 years (lakes and reservoirs); however, the average renewal time for groundwater is approximately 1400 years for aquifers to millions years for some deep fossil groundwater. Groundwater depletion, which is the reduction in the volume of groundwater storage, can lead to land subsidence, negative impacts on water supply, reduction in surface water flow and spring discharges, and loss of wetlands. Water balancing strategy has been considered as one of the most effective options to mitigate the groundwater depletion, and thus the balancing scenarios are applied as main approach to manage ground water sustainably. The purpose of the water balancing strategy in aquifers management is that groundwater level to be returned to the primary water level and to compensate the water resources shortage of aquifers’ storage.
Materials and Methods:
1. Case study: Birjand aquifer with an area of 1100 square kilometers is situated in eastern part of Iran. The location of the aquifer is between 59o 45 and 58o 43 east longitude, and 33o 08 and 32o 34 north latitude.
2. Modeling: Laplace Equation is the basic equation for groundwater flow study in steady or unsteady states. In simulation by using numerical models, the boundary of the model, recharge and discharge resources, evaporation and recharge zones are important elements. After finding the key components of the conceptual model, the MODFLOW software was applied for simulation of groundwater. MODFLOW, which is a computer code that solves the groundwater flow equation and uses finite-difference method, is provided by the U.S. Geological Survey.
3. Sustainability Analysis: In order to achieve the objective of this study, water balancing scenarios should be evaluated for sustainability of the groundwater system using appropriate indices. Here, three indicators of reliability, vulnerability and desirability are proposed and were employed to assess the stability of groundwater system in different balancing scenarios in lumped and distributed forms. The aquifer sustainability index is expressed in Equation 4. In this equation, three indicators of aquifer reliability (Equation 1), aquifer vulnerability (Equation 2) and Desirability (Equation 3) have been used to assess the stability of groundwater system. The aquifer reliability index means in what extent the withdrawal scenario has been able to return the aquifer to its original state using the Equation 1 as follows:
(1)
In which the number of periods where the groundwater level is above the desired level (equilibrium balance) and the total number of time steps in simulation. The vulnerability index indicates the amount of shortage in the groundwater storage and expresses the severity of the system failures using the Equation 2 as follows:
(2)
In this equation, the desired groundwater level at time step t, the groundwater level simulated in t time period for each scenario, the groundwater level without scenarios and n the number of periods where the groundwater level is lower than the desired level. The index of the likelihood of returning the system to a favorable state is presented as an indicator of the desirability of the system using the Equation 3 as follows:.
(3)
In this equation, indicates the f ground water level after the depletion, is the desired level of groundwater and is the groundwater level (without the scenario). After estimating three indicators of reliability, vulnerability and desirability, the sustainability index for each scenario can be appraised using Equation 4.
(4)
In this equation, groundwater sustainability index, reliability index, desirability index and vulnerability index.
Results and Discussion: In this study, six water balancing strategies were employed to reduce 1, 1.5, 2, 2.5, 3 and 3.5 percent water withdrawing for agricultural water use. Results of the simulation of different water balancing strategies demonstrated that with reducing in water use, the stability index has been improved significantly. The improvement changes from 32% increase in the index for 1% water withdrawing reduction scenario to 88% increase in the index for the 3.5% water withdrawing reduction scenario. Moreover, the reviewing of the stability indices of the system in various scenarios reveals that a 2.5% reduction in water use will assistance the aquifer status achieve to a stable state.
Conclusion: In order to manage groundwater withdrawal, it is easier to assess the impact of the water balancing scenarios using the groundwater sustainability index. The review of sustainability indices in the studied aquifer shows that by reducing 1% of the water harvest, 32% of the system's stability increases, and if water harvest reduction reaches 3.5%, the index increases 88%. Considering the distributed potential and possibility of the investigation of different scenarios by proposed indices in this study, they can be applied to assess and manage other similar aquifers.
M. E. Banihabib; K. Hasani; A. R. Massah Bavani
Abstract
Introduction: Forecasting the inflow to the reservoir is important issues due to the limited water resources and the importance of optimal utilization of reservoirs to meet the need for drinking, industry and agriculture in future time periods. In the meantime, ignoring the effects of climate change ...
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Introduction: Forecasting the inflow to the reservoir is important issues due to the limited water resources and the importance of optimal utilization of reservoirs to meet the need for drinking, industry and agriculture in future time periods. In the meantime, ignoring the effects of climate change on meteorological and hydrological parameters and water resources in long-term planning of water resources cause inaccuracy. It is essential to assess the impact of climate change on reservoir operation in arid regions. In this research, climate change impact on hydrological and meteorological variables of the Shahcheragh dam basin, in Semnan Province, was studied using an integrated model of climate change assessment.
Materials and Methods: The case study area of this study was located in Damghan Township, Semnan Province, Iran. It is an arid zone. The case study area is a part of the Iran Central Desert. The basin is in 12 km north of the Damghan City and between 53° E to 54° 30’ E longitude and 36° N to 36° 30’ N latitude. The area of the basin is 1,373 km2 with average annual inflow around 17.9 MCM. Total actual evaporation and average annual rainfall are 1,986 mm and 137 mm, respectively. This case study is chosen to test proposed framework for assessment of climate change impact hydrological and meteorological variables of the basin. In the proposed model, LARS-WG and ANN sub-models (7 sub models with a combination of different inputs such as temperature, precipitation and also solar radiation) were used for downscaling daily outputs of CGCM3 model under 3 emission scenarios, A2, B1 and A1B and reservoir inflow simulation, respectively. LARS-WG was tested in 99% confidence level before using it as downscaling model and feed-forward neural network was used as raifall-runoff model. Moreover, the base period data (BPD), 1990-2008, were used for calibration. Finally, reservoir inflow was simulated for future period data (FPD) of 2015-2044 and compared to BPD. The best ANN sub-model has minimum Mean Absolute Relative Error (MARE) index (0.27 in test phases) and maximum correlation coefficient (ρ) (0.82 in test phases).
Results and Discussion: The tested climate change scenarios revealed that climate change has more impact on rainfall and temperature than solar radiation. The utmost growth of monthly rainfall occurred in May under all the three tested climate change scenarios. But, rainfall under A1B scenario had the maximum growth (52%) whereas the most decrease occurred (–21.5%) during January under the A2 climate change scenario. Rainfall dropped over the period of June to October under the three tested climate change scenarios. Furthermore, in all three scenarios, the maximum temperature increased about 2.2 to 2.6°C in May but the lowest increase of temperature occurred in January under A2 and B1 scenarios as 0.3 and 0.5°C, respectively. The maximum temperature usually increased in all months compared to the baseline period. Minimum and maximum temperatures enlarged likewise in all months, with 2.05°C in September under A2 climate change scenario. Conversely, solar radiation change was comparatively low and the most decreases occurred in February under A1B and A2 climate change scenarios as –4.2% and –4.3% , respectively, and in August under the B1 scenario as –4.2%. The greatest increase of solar radiation occurs in April, November, and March by 3.1%, 3.2%, and 4.9% for A1B, A2, and B1 scenarios, respectively. The impact of climate change on rainfall and temperature can origin changes on reservoir inflow and need new strategies to adapt reservoir operation for change inflows. Therefore, first, reservoir inflow in future period (after climate change impact) should be anticipated for the adaptation of the reservoir.
A Feed-Forward (FF) Multilayer-Perceptron (MLP) Artificial Neural Network (ANN) model was nominated for the seven tested ANN models based on minimization of error function. The selected model had 12 neurons in the hidden layer, and two delays. The comparison of forecasted flow hydrograph by selecting an ANN model and observed one proved that forecasted flow hydrograph can follow observed one closely. By comparison with the IHACRES model, this model displayed a 54% and 46% lower error functions for validation data. The selected model was used to forecast flow for the climate change scenarios of the future period.
Conclusions: The results show a reduction of monthly flow in most months and annual flow in all studied scenarios. The following main points can be concluded:
• By climate change, flow growths in dry years and it declines in wet and normal years.
• The studied climate change scenarios showed that climate change has more impact on rainfall and temperature than solar radiation.
M. E. Banihabib; S. Mirmomen; M. Eivazi
Abstract
Introduction: Since flooding causes death and economic damages, then it is important and is one of the most complex and destructive natural disaster that endangers human lives and properties compared to any other natural disasters. This natural disaster almost hit most of countries and each country depending ...
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Introduction: Since flooding causes death and economic damages, then it is important and is one of the most complex and destructive natural disaster that endangers human lives and properties compared to any other natural disasters. This natural disaster almost hit most of countries and each country depending on its policy deals with it differently. Uneven intensity and temporal distribution of rainfall in various parts of Iran (which has arid and semiarid climate) causes flash floods and leads to too much economic damages. Detention basins can be used as one of the measures of flood control and it detains, delays and postpones the flood flow. It controls floods and affects the flood directly and rapidly by temporarily storing of water. If the land topography allows the possibility of making detention basin with an appropriate volume and quarries are near to the projects for construction of detention dam, it can be used, because of its faster effect comparing to the other watershed management measures. The open drains can be used alone or in combination with detention basin instead of detention basin solitarily. Since in the combined system of open and detention basin the dam height is increasing in contrast with increasing the open drainage capacity, optimization of the system is essential. Hence, the investigation of the sensitivity of optimized combined system (open drainage and detention basin) to the effective factors is also useful in appropriately design of the combined system.
Materials and Methods: This research aims to develop optimization model for a combined system of open drainage and detention basins in a mountainous area and analyze the sensitivity of optimized dimensions to the hydrological factors. To select the dam sites for detention basins, watershed map with scale of 1: 25000 is used. In AutoCAD environment, the location of the dam sites are assessed to find the proper site which contains enough storage volume of the detention basin and the narrower valley. After the initial selection of dam sites, based on the reservoir volume to construction volume ratio of each dam site, best sites were selected to have the higher ratio. The layout of the main drainage scheme that is responsible for collecting and transferring overland flows of farmlands and reservoir outflows was designed. In order to simulate the hydrological processes in upstream watershed and flood analysis, HEC-HMS model which is an extended version of HEC-1 was used as hydrologic model. The optimal combination of open drainages and detention basins was also developed. Watershed in terms of detention basin dams, topography and drainage were divided into 19 smaller sub-basins. The downstream agricultural basin due to the slope and drainage area was divided into 27 sub-basins. Regarding available information of the watershed, SCS method was used to calculate losses and to convert rainfall to runoff hydrograph. In this section Muskingum flood routing method was used considering its accuracy. In the present optimization model, the total cost of the combined system of dams and open drains used as the objective function. It is function bottom outlet diameter which is minimized by using optimization model. Other factors of the simulation model such as dam height and drainage dimensions were defined as function of the diameter of the bottom outlet of dams. After determining the optimal dimensions of the combined system of open drainage and detention basins, a sensitivity analysis was performed on hydrological factors.
Results and Discussion: After optimization of the dimensions of open drainage and detention basin integrated-system, sensitivity analysis was carried out on the dimensions of system for variation of flood simulation parameters such as rainfall, curve number and lag time. The error of estimated rainfall effected far less than the curve number (CN) on the optimum dimensions and cost. 10% variation of the rainfall depth caused respectively, 7%, 8% and 10% error in optimum dam height, drainage optimal depth and total cost. Lag time was identified less important effect in the determination of optimal dimensions. As its 10% changing produced 10% error in optimal dimensions costs.
Conclusions: The research results showed that curve number is the most important factor in determining the optimal size and cost. As with 10% error in the estimation of curve number caused error rates of 21%, 25% and 24% of the optimal dam height, the optimal depth of the drain and minimized costs, respectively.
M. Habibi Davijani; M.E. Banihabib; S.R. Hashemi
Abstract
Population growth has caused increase of water demand for the drinking water, industry and agriculture. This condition needs the application of effective measures for optimal water management. So, in this research, a water allocation model is proposed for agriculture, industry and service sectors. In ...
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Population growth has caused increase of water demand for the drinking water, industry and agriculture. This condition needs the application of effective measures for optimal water management. So, in this research, a water allocation model is proposed for agriculture, industry and service sectors. In agricultural sector, production function of each crop is determined and then, objective function is specified based on the production function, and income of crops. In the industrial sector, the water demand of the product is function of water and other material prices and so, the demand function is determined based on these factors. Due to the necessity of water for the service sector, the total water demand of this section was fully allocated. Then, using innovative learning algorithms, a combination of genetic algorithms-Collective Intelligence (GAPSO), objective function is maximized and optimal allocation of water for agriculture and industry, were determined and compared. According to the result mentioned, use pattern of deficit irrigation model, changing crop pattern, remove the acreage of some crops and use of more water resources in the industry field can be effect on increase revenues to 114 billion Rls. In sum, the income of agriculture and industry in the Iran Central Kavir basin can be up to 56 percent of revenues of the current situation using water resource allocation for different sectors. In this case, the region will witness a remarkable progress. Therefore changes in the water resources allocation of the area seem to be necessary.
