M. Delghandi; S. Broomandnasab; B. Andarzian; A.R. Massah-Bovani
Abstract
Introduction In recent years human activities induced increases in atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2). Increases in [CO2] caused global warming and Climate change. Climate change is anticipated to cause negative and adverse impacts on agricultural systems throughout the world. Higher temperatures are expected ...
Read More
Introduction In recent years human activities induced increases in atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2). Increases in [CO2] caused global warming and Climate change. Climate change is anticipated to cause negative and adverse impacts on agricultural systems throughout the world. Higher temperatures are expected to lead to a host of problems. On the other hand, increasing of [CO2] anticipated causing positive impacts on crop yield. Considering the socio-economic importance of agriculture for food security, it is essential to undertake assessments of how future climate change could affect crop yields, so as to provide necessary information to implement appropriate adaptation strategies. In this perspective, the aim of this study was to assess potential climate change impacts and on production for one of the most important varieties of wheat (chamran) in Khouzestan plain and provide directions for possible adaptation strategies.
Materials and Methods: For this study, The Ahvaz region located in the Khuzestan province of Iran was selected.
Ahvaz has a desert climate with long, very hot summers and mild, short winters. At first, thirteen GCM models and two greenhouse gases emission (GHG) scenarios (A2 and B1) was selected for determination of climate change scenarios. ∆P and ∆T parameters at monthly scale were calculated for each GCM model under each GHG emissions scenario by following equation:
Where ∆P, ∆T are long term (thirty years) precipitation and temperature differences between baseline and future period, respectively. average future GCM temperature (2015-2044) for each month, , average baseline period GCM temperature (1971-2000) for each month, , average future GCM precipitation for each month, , average baseline period GCM temperature (1971-2000) for each month and i is index of month. Using calculated ∆Ps for each month via AOGCM models and Beta distribution, Cumulative probability distribution function (CDF) determined for generated ∆Ps. ∆P was derived for risk level 0.10 from CDF. Using the measured precipitation for the 30 years baseline period (1971-2000) and LARS-WG model, daily precipitation time series under risk level 0.10 were generated for future periods (2015-2045 and 2070-2100). Mentioned process in above was performed for temperature. Afterwards, wheat growth was simulated during future and baseline periods using DSSAT, CERES-Wheat model. DSSAT, CERES4.5 is a model based on the crop growth module in which crop growth and development are controlled by phenological development processes. The DSSAT model contains the soil water, soil dynamic, soil temperature, soil nitrogen and carbon, individual plant growth module and crop management module (including planting, harvesting, irrigation, fertilizer and residue modules). This model is not only used to simulate the crop yield, but also to explore the effects of climate change on agricultural productivity and irrigated water. For model validation, field data from different years of observations were used in this study. Experimental data for the simulation were collected at the experimental farm of the Khuzestan Agriculture and Natural Resources Research Center (KANRC), located at Ahwaz in south western Iran.
Results and Discussion: Results showed that wheat growth season was shortened under climate change, especially during 2070-2100 periods. Daily evapotranspiration increased and cumulative evapotranspiration decreased due to increasing daily temperatures and shortening of growth season, respectively. Comparing the wheat yield under climate change with base period based on the considered risk value (0.10) showed that wheat yield in 2015-2045 and 2070-2100 was decreased about 4 and 15 percent, respectively. Four adaptation strategies were assessed (shifting in the planting date, changing the amount of nitrogenous fertilizer, irrigation regime and breeding strategies) in response to climate change. Results indicated that Nov, 21 and Dec, 11 are the best planting dates for 2015-2045 and 2070-2100, respectively. The late season varieties with heat-tolerant characteristic had higher yield in comparison with short and normal season varieties. It indicated that breeding strategy was an appropriate adaptation under climate change. It was also found that the amount of nitrogen application will be reduced by 20 percent in future periods. The increase and decease of one irrigation application (40mm) to irrigation regime of base period resulted in maximum yield for 2015-2045 and 2070-2100, respectively. But, reduction of two irrigation application (80mm) resulted in maximum water productivity (WPI).
Conclusions In the present study, four adaptation strategies of wheat (shifting in the planting date, changing the amount of nitrogenous fertilizer, irrigation regime and breeding strategies) under climate change in Ahvaz region were investigated. Result showed that Nov, 21 and Dec, 11 were the best planting dates for 2015-2045 and 2070-2100, respectively. The late season varieties with heat-tolerant characteristic had higher yield in comparison with short and normal season varieties. It indicated that breeding strategy was an appropriate adaptation strategy under climate change. It was also found that the amount of nitrogen application will be reduced by 20 percent in future periods. The increase and decease of one irrigation application (40mm) to irrigation regime of base period resulted in maximum yield for 2015-2045 and 2070-2100, respectively.
Mahdi Delghandi; Saeid Boroomand Nasab
Abstract
Field experiments for quantifying optimal breeding strategies are time-consuming and expensive. Crop simulation models can provide an alternative, less time-consuming and inexpensive means of determining the optimum breeding strategies. These models consider the complex interactions between weather, ...
Read More
Field experiments for quantifying optimal breeding strategies are time-consuming and expensive. Crop simulation models can provide an alternative, less time-consuming and inexpensive means of determining the optimum breeding strategies. These models consider the complex interactions between weather, soil properties and management factors. CERES-Wheat is one of best models which can simulate the growth and development of wheat. Therefore, in present paper DSSAT 4.5-CERES-Wheat was evaluated for predicting growth, phenology stages and yield of wheat (cultivar of Chamran) for Ahwaz region. For this purpose, one Experimental research was designed at the experimental farm of the Khuzestan Agriculture And Natural Resources Research Center (KANRC), located at Ahwaz in 2010-2011 growth season. Using results of this research and two another research, CERES-Wheat model was evaluated. Results of evaluation showed that most and less NRMSE were abtained for simulation of maximum Leaf Area Index (6%) and phenology stages (2%), respectively. Therefore, it can conclude that CERES-Wheat is a powerful model in order to simulation of growth, phenology stages and yield of wheat.
M. Delghandi; M. Behzad; S. Broomandnasab
Abstract
چکیده
قطره چکان مهمترین قسمت آبیاری قطره ای محسوب می گردد برای طراحی و ساخت قطره چکان های با کارایی بالا، لازم است اطلاعات کاملی از چگونگی مکانیسم جریان درون مجاری آن ...
Read More
چکیده
قطره چکان مهمترین قسمت آبیاری قطره ای محسوب می گردد برای طراحی و ساخت قطره چکان های با کارایی بالا، لازم است اطلاعات کاملی از چگونگی مکانیسم جریان درون مجاری آن ها داشته باشیم، به دلیل ریز و پیچیده بودن هندسه مجاری مارپیچ قطره چکان ها، استفاده از دینامیک سیالات محاسباتی (CFD) برای مطالعه خصوصیات هیدرولیکی جریان درون مجاری آن ها، بسیار مناسب میباشد. در این مطالعه با استفاده از دینامیک سیالات محاسباتی، رفتار جریان داخل قطره چکان ها برای بدست آوردن نحوه توزیع سرعت و فشار به منظور طراحی نرم افزاری قطره چکان ها شبیه سازی شد و رابطه بین فشار و میزان دبی، تحت شش فشار مختلف به دست آمد. بدین منظور سه نمونه از دو نوع قطره چکان تیپ پلاک دار انتخاب، و تخریب شدند. اندازه مجاری با عکس برداری، توسط میکروسکوپ الکترونی (SEM) تعیین شد. سپس جریان درون قطره چکان ها توسط CFD شبیه سازی گردید. و ضرایب معادله دبی- فشار مشخص و توزیع سرعت و فشار داخل مجاری نمایش داده شد. صحت سنجی نتایج حاصله از مدل، براساس ضوابط ارائه شده در استاندارد ISO9261 در آزمایشگاه صورت گرفت. نتایج نشان دادند که داده های به دست آمده از شبیه سازی مطابقت بسیار خوبی با داده های آزمایشگاهی دارد و دینامیک سیالات محاسباتی میتواند ابزار بسیار مناسبی برای کمک به طراحی قطره چکان های با مجاری مارپیچ باشد و با کاهش تعداد قالب های آزمایشی، هزینه تولید قطره چکان ها کاهش مییابد.
واژه های کلیدی: قطره چکان، دینامیک سیالات محاسباتی (CFD)، رابطه دبی – فشار