Irrigation
Z. Bigdeli; A. Majnooni-Heris; R. Delearhasannia; S. Karimi
Abstract
Introduction
Water plays a crucial role in ensuring the sustainable development of any region. Given that our country consists primarily of arid and semi-arid regions, where the majority of rivers are also found, along with the critical state of groundwater extraction and the growing importance of surface ...
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Introduction
Water plays a crucial role in ensuring the sustainable development of any region. Given that our country consists primarily of arid and semi-arid regions, where the majority of rivers are also found, along with the critical state of groundwater extraction and the growing importance of surface water, It is crucial to have a deep understanding of the future condition of water resources within the country's watersheds (Fathollahi et al., 2015). By utilizing intelligent models, it becomes feasible to represent the inherent relationships between data that cannot be solved by conventional mathematical methods. Support vector machine (SVM) and Random Forest algorithms are two types of machine learning methods that utilize essential algorithms for making repeated and accurate predictions (Kisi & Parmarm, 2016). The most recent study conducted by Zarei et al. (2022) evaluated the risk of flooding using data mining models of SVM and RF (case study: Frizi watershed). By analyzing the results, it was found that both the SVM algorithm and the new random forest algorithm showed higher accuracy in predicting flooding risks, both in terms of the educational data and algorithmic performance. The purpose of this study is to simulate the precipitation-runoff process in the hydrometric stations at the end of the Maragheh plain (Khormazard station on the Mahpari chai river and Bonab station on the Sufichai river) in East Azerbaijan province using support vector machine and random forest modeling algorithms. This study has been conducted over a period of 43 years, making it one of the few research cases in this area.
Materials and Methods
The Maragheh Sufi chai basin is situated in the eastern region of Lake Urmia, within the East Azarbaijan province. It covers an area of 611.89 square kilometers and is located between longitudes 45° and 40´ to 46° and 25´and latitudes from 37° and 15´ to 37° and 55´ north. The average height of the basin is 1767 meters above sea level (Sharmod et al., 2015). Based on the substantial changes observed in the runoff trend in the data since 1994 (without any noticeable change in the precipitation trend), the available data was divided into two distinct periods. The first period spans from 1976 to 1994, and the second period covers the years 1995 to 2019. To simulate rainfall-runoff, first the average rainfall of Maragheh plain was calculated by polygonal method. Subsequently, this data was combined with the discharge output from Bonab and Khormazard stations, with a one-day time lag. These inputs were then utilized in two models, SVM (kernel function) and RF. For this purpose, 70% of the data was used for the training stage and 30% of the data was used for the validation stage. Then, the rainfall and runoff training sets from one day before were chosen as the predictor variables, while the runoff training set was designated as the target variable. Several combinations of runoff and rainfall inputs were evaluated for the purpose of modeling. The inputs consist of the monthly Q and P values that were recorded previously (Pt, Qt-1), while the output represents the current runoff data (Qt), with the subscript t indicating the time step. As a result, two input combinations were constructed from Q and P data (as seen in Table 3) and SVM and RF models were used for rainfall-runoff modeling to determine the optimal input combination.
Calculating average rainfall through the Thiessen Polygons method
Thiessen polygons, which are Voronoi cells, are used to define rainfall polygons that correspond to the surface area (Ai). These polygons are used to weight the rainfall measured by each rain gauge (ri). Consequently, the area-weighted rainfall is equivalent to:
(1)
Random Forest Algorithm
Random forest is a modern type of tree-based methods that includes a multitude of classification and regression trees. This algorithm is one of the most widely used machine learning algorithms due to its simplicity and usability for both classification and regression tasks.
Support Vector Machine (SVM) algorithm
Support vector machines works like other artificial intelligence methods based on data mining algorithm. The most important functions of the support vector machine model are classification and linearization or data regression.
Evaluation Criteria
To evaluate the models and compare their effectiveness, this research employs metrics such as the root mean square error (RMSE), correlation coefficient (r), explanation coefficient (R2) and Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency coefficient (NS) are used. Below are the relationships among these criteria:
(2)
(3)
(4)
(5)
Results and Discussion
Figure 6 displays the time series data for rainfall and runoff during the two study periods, before and after 1994.The analysis of the figures showed that for Bonab station, during the two study periods, the value of Kendall's statistic for precipitation variable was 0.044 and 0.028, respectively. For Khormazard station, this statistic value for the first and second period was 0.030, and 0.028, respectively. However, these values are not significant at the 95% level. This indicates that the annual rainfall for the two studied stations during these years is not statistically significant. Therefore, it is concluded that the annual rainfall in these stations between the years 1976 to 2019 did not show any significant trend. The variations observed during this period were deemed normal, suggesting that the time series of rainfall displayed fluctuating patterns. However, it should be noted that there were instances of both increasing and decreasing trends in certain years Examining the time series reveals varying trends Initially, the outflow from Bonab station (both a and b) displayed fluctuating patterns, followed by periods of both decreasing and increasing trends. However, in recent years, there has an increase in outflow from this station. The Mann-Kendall test statistic for the two study periods for this station is 0.325 and 0.512, respectively. These values are significantly different at the 95% level, indicating that the increasing trend of discharge for both time periods was statistically significant. The reason for this trend at the Bonab station, compared to other entrance stations to Lake Urmia, is the lower demand for water in the Sofichai basin for agricultural and industrial purposes, in contrast to other rivers. To explore the root cause of this issue, studies should be conducted to examine both underground and surface water sources, as well as the utilization of water in the agricultural and industrial sectors of this region. On the contrary, the trend observed at Khormazard station (c and d) is different. Unlike Bonab station, the discharge from Khormazard station exhibited a complete downward trend. The Mann-Kendall test statistic for the discharge variable during our two research periods were -0.269 and -0.412, respectively. At the 95% level, the decreasing trend of discharge in this station was found to be significant. On the other hand, it is apparent that the volume of discharge in this hydrometric station has decreased drastically since 1976 (d). Apart from 2007, when there was a sudden increase in discharge volume, the water inflow into lake Urmia has remained at its lowest level throughout the years. To analyze the Bonab and Khormazard stations during two distinct periods, rainfall and runoff statistics (average, minimum, maximum) for the first period (1976-1994) and the second period (1995-2019) are presented in Tables 4 and 5. Based on the data presented in both tables, the Bonab station displays the highest average rainfall and runoff values in the total data column, while the Khormazard station has the lowest average rainfall and runoff values.
As mentioned, in order to model rainfall-runoff data using SVM and RF models, a portion of the data was used for training purposes, while another portion was used for validation. Tables 5 and 6 present the values of the calculated statistical indicators associated with the results obtained from the training and validation sections for both SVM and RF models. According to the results of Tables 6 and 7, it is clear that in both study periods, the SVM model outperformed the RF model at the Bonab station. The SVM model demonstrated superior accuracy in simulating both flow rate and monthly rainfall. Conversely, at the Kharmazard station during these periods, the RF model displayed better performance compared to the SVM model. The modeling results in the test set for both stations revealed that the mutual correlation values for the first and second study periods at the Bonab station were 0.85 and 0.84, respectively. For the Kharmazard station, these values were 0.79 and 0.75, respectively.
Conclusion
The results indicate that for both periods at the Bonab station, the SVM model exhibited higher efficiency compared to the RF model. Conversely, at the Khormazard station, the RF model outperformed the SVM model for both periods. Mutual correlation values for the test sets were 0.85 and 0.84 for the first and second study periods at the Bonab station, respectively, for the SVM model test set. For the Khormazard station, these values were 0.79 and 0.75, respectively, for the RF model test set. Other notable findings of this research include the analysis of the time series data for rainfall and runoff over 43 years. Graphs obtained for both stations, along with the Mann-Kendall statistic for precipitation and flow parameters, revealed no discernible trend in precipitation during the two study periods. Instead, precipitation in these areas displayed fluctuating patterns However, the analysis of the time series and statistical values for the discharge of Sofichai and Mahpari chai rivers at the Bonab and Khormazard stations showed different results. In the Bonab station, the discharge exhibited fluctuations, with an increase observed in the second period. Conversely, at the Khormazard station, the discharge trend was downward in both study periods. The volume of Mahpari chai River outflow notably decreased in recent years, as evidenced by the Mann-Kendall statistic showing a decreasing trend.
Naser Arya Azar; Abolfazl Majnooni Heris; Reza delearhasannia
Abstract
Introduction: Water as the most limiting factor in agricultural production plays an important role in providing food for population of the country. Therefore, it is necessary to use optimal water resources of the country and increased its productivity. So to improve irrigation efficiency, as ...
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Introduction: Water as the most limiting factor in agricultural production plays an important role in providing food for population of the country. Therefore, it is necessary to use optimal water resources of the country and increased its productivity. So to improve irrigation efficiency, as well as the proper use of land and available water resources the best irrigation system should be used to supply plant water requirement. This selection is influenced by various factors such as cultivar type, available water content, water quality, soil characteristics, climatic conditions, selective cultivar pattern, labor force skill, and etc. The mentioned effective parameters depending on the region may change. Therefore, it is necessary to identify the homogenies areas for application of irrigation system.
Materials and Methods: The study area is the Ajichay River Basin in East Azarbaijan Province. This basin is located between 37° 30' to 38 ° '30 northern and 45° 24 ' 47° 53' eastern. In this study AHP method and GIS were used for identifying homogeneous zones of irrigated and rainfed areas. Analysis Hierarchical Process method is one of the most comprehensive systems designed for decision making with multiple criteria. This method was first proposed by Thomas El Saaty in 1980, which is based on paired comparisons. This gives managers the opportunity to study different scenarios. In the AHP model, we construct a matrix for comparing two factors. It has two important features, 1- Considering multiple quantitative and qualitative factors in problem solving and 2- The ability to analysis complex issues through hierarchical factors. In this study, to determine the homogeneous irrigation regions, first, the criteria was determined. In AHP method questionnaires were prepared, to score, these questionnaires were provided to the experts of this field. Then using the AHP method the criteria was compared with together. Finally, for each of the criteria, the interpolation maps in the GIS using geostatistical methods were obtained. These maps were divided into different zones using available tables and resources. The maps were combined in their scores in GIS and homogeneous irrigation areas (sprinkler, drip and surface irrigation systems) were selected.
Results and Discussion: In this study, the agricultural lands, including under irrigation lands, dry farming and gardens, were distinguished from non-cultivated lands. In agricultural land of Tabriz plain, applying sprinkler irrigation system has moderate restrictions and some areas face severe restrictions. In the southern parts of Bostanabad plain, the implementation of the sprinkler irrigation system is suitable. The possibility of sprinkler irrigation in dry farming lands was also investigated. Lands that located in the Bostanabad, Heris and Sarab plains will be relatively suitable for sprinkler irrigation. But for the Tabriz plain, the underground water and soil quality are low, applying sprinkler irrigation system has moderate restrictions. However, in Sarab plain, the appropriate area is visible. Implementation of drip irrigation system in the study area, in a large part of the Sarab plain and the southern parts of the plain of Bostanabad were appropriately determined. But in Tabriz plain and lands near the Urmia Lake, the implementation of this system has severe restriction. Like sprinkler irrigation, agricultural land of Tabriz plain has a moderate restrictions. Most areas of Heris, Bostanabad and Sarab plains, for applying this system will be relatively suitable. According to expert, water SAR and land gradients have more effect on the implementation of surface irrigation systems. If we can correct these two parameters with management and planning tasks, the implementation of this system will be appropriate in many areas of the basin. Most agricultural land has a moderate restriction on the implementation of this system.
Conclusion: The AjiChay Basin with an equivalent area of 12600 km2 is one of the largest sub basins in Lake Urmia basin. Since agriculture is important in this basin and also the quality of irrigation water in some parts of this basin is low, therefore, it is essential to pay attention to the type of irrigation method. Considering the parameters of water, climate and soil, suitable and unsuitable areas for surface irrigation, sprinkler and drip irrigation systems were determined. Thus, implementing irrigation system in agricultural lands in the margins of Lake Urmia and in some areas, will be severe restrictions. Getting away from Lake Urmia the groundwater quality, which is mainly used for agriculture, using irrigation systems is relatively appropriate.
S. Samadianfard; R. Delirhasannia
Abstract
Introduction: Precise prediction of river flows is the key factor for proper planning and management of water resources. Thus, obtaining the reliable methods for predicting river flows has great importance in water resource engineering. In the recent years, applications of intelligent methods such as ...
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Introduction: Precise prediction of river flows is the key factor for proper planning and management of water resources. Thus, obtaining the reliable methods for predicting river flows has great importance in water resource engineering. In the recent years, applications of intelligent methods such as artificial neural networks, fuzzy systems and genetic programming in water science and engineering have been grown extensively. These mentioned methods are able to model nonlinear process of river flows without any need to geometric properties. A huge number of studies have been reported in the field of using intelligent methods in water resource engineering. For example, Noorani and Salehi (23) presented a model for predicting runoff in Lighvan basin using adaptive neuro-fuzzy network and compared the performance of it with neural network and fuzzy inference methods in east Azerbaijan, Iran. Nabizadeh et al. (21) used fuzzy inference system and adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference system in order to predict river flow in Lighvan river. Khalili et al. (13) proposed a BL-ARCH method for prediction of flows in Shaharchay River in Urmia. Khu et al. (16) used genetic programming for runoff prediction in Orgeval catchment in France. Firat and Gungor (11) evaluated the fuzzy-neural model for predicting Mendes river flow in Turkey. The goal of present study is comparing the performance of genetic programming and M5 model trees for prediction of Shaharchay river flow in the basin of Lake Urmia and obtaining a comprehensive insight of their abilities.
Materials and Methods: Shaharchay river as a main source of providing drinking water of Urmia city and agricultural needs of surrounding lands and finally one of the main input sources of Lake Urmia is quite important in the region. For obtaining the predetermined goals of present study, average monthly flows of Shaharchay River in Band hydrometric station has been gathered from 1951 to 2011. Then, two third of mentioned data were used for calibration and the rest were used for validation of study models including genetic programming and M5 model trees. It should be noted that for prediction of Shaharchay river flows, previous data of mentioned river in 1, 2 and 3 months ago (Q, Q, Q) were used.
Genetic programming: was first proposed by Koza (17). It is a generalization of genetic algorithms. The fundamental difference between genetic programming and genetic algorithm is due to the nature of the individuals. In genetic algorithm, the individuals are linear strings of fixed length (chromosomes). In genetic programming, the individuals are nonlinear entities of different sizes and shapes (parse trees). Genetic programming applies genetic algorithms to a “population” of programs, typically encoded as tree-structures. Trial programs are evaluated against a “fitness function”. Then the best solutions are selected for modification and re-evaluation. This modification-evaluation cycle is repeated until a “correct” program is produced.
Model trees generalize the concepts of regression trees, which have constant values at their leaves. So, they are analogous to piece-wise linear functions. M5 model tree is a binary decision tree having linear regression function at the terminal nodes, which can predict continuous numerical attributes. Tree-based models are constructed by a divide-and-conquer method.
Results and Discussion: In order to investigate the probability of using different mathematical functions in genetic programming method, three combinations of the functions were used in the current study. The results showed that in the case of predicting river flows with Q, M5 model trees with root mean squared error of 4.7907 in comparison with genetic programming by the best mathematical functions and root mean squared error of 4.8233 had better performances. Obtained results indicated that adding more mathematical functions to the genetic programming and producing more complicated analytical formulations did not have positive effect in reducing prediction error. Unlike the previous observed trend, in case of predicting river flows with Q Q, the genetic programming method with root mean squared error of 3.3501 in comparison with M5 model trees with error of 3.8480 had more satisfied performance. Finally, in the case of predicting river flows with Q, Q,Q, the genetic programming method with root mean squared error of 3.3094 in comparison with M5 model trees with error of 3.5514 presented better predictions. As a result, it can be stated that genetic programming by the best mathematical functions and considering the input parameters of Q,Q,Q, by resulting less root mean squared error and high correlation coefficients had the best performances among others. Also, the results showed that adding more trigonometric functions did not improve the precisions of the predictions.
Conclusion: In this research, the intelligent models such as genetic programming and M5 model trees have been used for prediction of monthly flows of Shaharchay River located in East Azerbaijan, Iran. The obtained results showed that the genetic programming by the best mathematical functions and M5 model trees in case of considering the input parameters of Q,Q,Q, by less root mean squared error had the best performances in river flow predictions. As a conclusion, the genetic programming method by specific mathematical functions including four basic operations, logarithm, power and using input parameters of Q,Q,Q, has been proposed as the best and precise model for predicting Shaharchay River flows.
