Irrigation
Hajar Norozzadeh; Mahsa Hasanpour Kashani; Ali Rasoulzadeh
Abstract
Climatic changes and human activities are among the important factors that affect the flow of rivers and it is very important to determine the contribution of these factors in order to better manage water resources. In recent years, there have been major changes in the watersheds, and the amount of runoff ...
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Climatic changes and human activities are among the important factors that affect the flow of rivers and it is very important to determine the contribution of these factors in order to better manage water resources. In recent years, there have been major changes in the watersheds, and the amount of runoff and river flow has decreased, or in some cases, the flow has increased due to the occurrence of floods. The issue of reducing the amount of runoff, especially in the arid and semi-arid regions of Iran, is one of the basic challenges related to the management of water resources. Hydrological changes primarily result from a combination of natural or climatic factors, including precipitation levels, air temperature, and overall warming of the Earth. Additionally, human activities, such as the construction of dams, creation of reservoirs, urbanization expansion, and indiscriminate harvesting, play a significant role. It is important to note that these factors are interconnected, and alterations in one can impact the others. The increase of greenhouse gases and climate change has caused a change in the hydrological cycle and the amount of runoff in the watersheds and has increased the number of climatic extreme events. The main purpose of this study is to determine the contribution of each of these factors on the discharge changes of the Gharehsoo River, one of the most important rivers of Ardabil province, using elasticity-based methods (non-parametric and Bodiko-based methods).
Materials and Methods
In this research, firstly, in order to determine the point of change in the amount of river runoff and to divide the base and change period, Petit's test was used during the statistical period of 1984-2019. This test was done using Xlstat software. According to the results of this test, there was a change in the annual flow time series in 1997, which was considered as the base period from 1984 to 1997 and from 1998 to 2019 as the period of changes. Then, the contribution of each of these factors was determined using elasticity-based methods.
Results and Discussion
In the elasticity-oriented method, the non-parametric method and the methods based on Bodiko's assumptions were used to calculate the elasticity coefficient.The results showed that in Samyan station, in the non-parametric method, the contribution of human activities is 88.26% and the contribution of climate change is 11.74%. The contribution of human activities and the contribution of climate change for the methods of Schreiber, Aldekap, Bodiko, Peek and Zhang, respectively 91.98 and 8.02, 90.02 and 9.97, 91.98 and 8.02, 90.80 and 9.20, 92.37 and 7.62 are estimated. In general, in the elasticity method, the contribution of human activities is 88.26 to 92.37 percent and the contribution of climate change is from 7.63 to 11.74 percent, depending on the non-parametric and Bodiko method. At the Dost-Beiglo station, employing the non-parametric method reveals that human activities account for 96.13% of the observed changes, while the remaining 3.87% is attributed to climate change. The contribution of human activities and the contribution of climate change for the methods of Schreiber, Eldekap, Bodiko, Pick and Zhang are 97.71 and 2.29, 97.42 and 2.58, 97.56 and 2.44, 97.48 and 2.52, 97.71 and 2.29 are estimated. In general, in the elasticity-oriented method, the contribution of human activities between 96.13 and 97.71 percent and the contribution of climate change from 2.29 to 3.87 percent, depending on the non-parametric and Boudico-oriented method, have been met.
Conclusion
In this research, different hydrometeorological data such as precipitation, evaporation and transpiration and monthly discharge from the Samyan and Dost Beiglo stations were used for the statistical period of 1982-2019. First, by using Pettitt's test, it was determined that the river flow rate has changed abruptly since 2016. Therefore, the entire statistical period was divided into two natural and change periods, and then, using elasticity-based methods, the contribution of human activities and the contribution of climate change were determined. According to the results obtained in both stations, the impact of human activities (more than 88%) on the basin's runoff is far more than climate change (less than 11%). Therefore, it seems necessary to prevent the effective human activities on reducing the river flow in solving and managing water problems in the basin.
Soil science
Sh. Asghari; M. Hasanpour Kashani; H. Shahab Arkhazloo
Abstract
IntroductionThe penetration resistance (PR) of the soil shows the mechanical resistance of the soil against the penetration of a conical or flat probe; it is important in terms of seed germination, root growth and tillage operations. In general, if the PR value of a soil exceeds 2.5 MPa, the growth and ...
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IntroductionThe penetration resistance (PR) of the soil shows the mechanical resistance of the soil against the penetration of a conical or flat probe; it is important in terms of seed germination, root growth and tillage operations. In general, if the PR value of a soil exceeds 2.5 MPa, the growth and expansion of roots in the soil will be significantly limited. The direct measurement of PR is also a laborious and costly task due to instrumental errors. Therefore, it is useful the use of different models such as multiple linear regression (MLR), artificial neural network (ANN) and gene expression programming (GEP) to estimate PR through easily accessible and low-cost soil characteristics. The objectives of this research were: (1) to obtain MLR, ANN and GEP models for estimating PR from the easily accessible soil variables in forest, range and cultivated lands of Fandoghloo region of Ardabil province, (2) to compare the accuracy of the aforementioned models in estimating soil PR using the coefficient of determination (R2), root mean square error (RMSE), mean error (ME) and Nash-Sutcliffe coefficient (NS) criteria. Materials and MethodsDisturbed and undisturbed samples (n = 80) were nearly systematically taken from 0-10 cm soil depth with nearly 50 m distance in forest (n = 20), range (n = 23) and cultivated (n = 37) lands of Fandoghloo region of Ardabil province, Iran (lat. 38° 24' 10" to 38° 24' 25" N, long. 48° 32' 45" to 48° 33' 5" E) in summer 2023. The contents of sand, silt, clay, CaCO3, pH, EC, bulk (BD) and particle density (PD), organic carbon (OC), gravimetric field water content (FWC), mean weight diameter (MWD) and geometric mean diameter (GMD) were measured in the laboratory. Relative bulk density (BDrel) was calculated using BD and clay data. Mean geometric diameter (dg) and geometric standard deviation (σg) of soil particles were computed by sand, silt and clay percentages. The penetration resistance (PR) of the soil was measured in situ using cone penetrometer (analog model) at 5 replicates. Data randomly were divided in two series as 60 data for training and 20 data for testing of models. The SPSS 22 software with stepwise method, MATLAB and Gene Xpro Tools 4.0 software were used to derive multiple linear regression (MLR), artificial neural network (ANN) and gene expression programming (GEP) models, respectively. A feed forward three-layer (2, 5 and 6 neurons in hidden layer) perceptron network and the tangent sigmoid transfer function were used for the ANN modeling. A set of optimal parameters were chosen before developing a best GEP model. The number of chromosomes and genes, head size and linking function were selected by the trial and error method, as they are 30, 3, 8, and +, respectively. The rates of genetic operators were chosen according to literature studies. The accuracy of MLR, ANN and GEP models in estimating PR were evaluated by coefficient of determination (R2), root mean square error (RMSE), mean error (ME) and Nash-Sutcliffe coefficient (NS) statistics. Results and Discussion The studied soils had clay loam (n = 11), sandy clay loam (n = 6), sandy loam (n = 12), loam (n = 13), silty clay loam (n = 14), silty clay (n = 1) and silt loam (n = 23) textural classes. The values of sand (13.14 to 64.79 %), silt (21.11 to 74.96 %), clay (2.95 to 42.18 %), OC (1.01 to 7.17 %), FWC (11.58 to 50.47 mass percent), BD (0.84 to 1.43 g cm-3) and PR (1.03 to 5.83 MPa) showed good variations in the soils of the studied region. There were found significant correlations between PR with FWC (r = - 0.45**), silt (r = - 0.36**) and σg (r = 0.36**). Due to the multicollinearity of silt with σg (r = -0.84**), the σg was not used as an input variable to estimate PR. Generally, 3 MLR, ANN and GEP models were constructed to estimate PR from measured readily available soil variables. The results of MLR, ANN and GEP models showed that the most suitable variables to estimate PR were FWC, silt and BDrel. The values of R2, RMSE, ME and NS criteria were obtained equal 0.44, 1.19 MPa, 0.19 MPa and 0.36, and 0.92, 0.41 MPa, -0.05 MPa and 0.92, 0.79, 0.91 MPa, 0.13 MPa, 0.63 for the best MLR, ANN and GEP models, respectively. The former researchers also reported that there is a negative and significant correlation between PR with FWC. Conclusion The results indicated that field water content (FWC), silt and relative bulk density (BDrel) were the most important and readily available soil variables to estimate penetration resistance (PR) in the studied area. According to the lowest values of RMSE and the highest values of NS, the accuracy of ANN models to predict soil PR was higher than MLR and GEP models in this research.
