aboalhasan fathabadi; hamed rouhani
Abstract
Introduction: In order to implement watershed practices to decrease soil erosion effects it needs to estimate output sediment of watershed. Sediment rating curve is used as the most conventional tool to estimate sediment. Regarding to sampling errors and short data, there are some uncertainties in estimating ...
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Introduction: In order to implement watershed practices to decrease soil erosion effects it needs to estimate output sediment of watershed. Sediment rating curve is used as the most conventional tool to estimate sediment. Regarding to sampling errors and short data, there are some uncertainties in estimating sediment using sediment curve. In this research, bootstrap and the Generalized Likelihood Uncertainty Estimation (GLUE) resampling techniques were used to calculate suspended sediment loads by using sediment rating curves.
Materials and Methods: The total drainage area of the Sefidrood watershed is about 560000 km2. In this study uncertainty in suspended sediment rating curves was estimated in four stations including Motorkhane, Miyane Tonel Shomare 7, Stor and Glinak constructed on Ayghdamosh, Ghrangho, GHezelOzan and Shahrod rivers, respectively. Data were randomly divided into a training data set (80 percent) and a test set (20 percent) by Latin hypercube random sampling.Different suspended sediment rating curves equations were fitted to log-transformed values of sediment concentration and discharge and the best fit models were selected based on the lowest root mean square error (RMSE) and the highest correlation of coefficient (R2). In the GLUE methodology, different parameter sets were sampled randomly from priori probability distribution. For each station using sampled parameter sets and selected suspended sediment rating curves equation suspended sediment concentration values were estimated several times (100000 to 400000 times). With respect to likelihood function and certain subjective threshold, parameter sets were divided into behavioral and non-behavioral parameter sets. Finally using behavioral parameter sets the 95% confidence intervals for suspended sediment concentration due to parameter uncertainty were estimated. In bootstrap methodology observed suspended sediment and discharge vectors were resampled with replacement B (set to 3000) times. Sediment rating curves equation was fitted to each sampled suspended sediment and discharge data sets. Using these sediment rating curve and their residual suspended sediment concentration were calculate for test data. Finally using the 2.5 and 97.5 percentile of the B bootstrap realizations, 95% bootstrap prediction intervals were predicted.
Results and Discussion: Results showed that Motorkhane and MiyaneTonelShomare 7 stations were best fitted by a sigmoid function and Stor and Glinak stations were best fitted by second order polynomial and liner function, respectively The first 50 of the B bootstrapped curves were plotted for all stations.with respect to these plots implied that bootstrapped curves more scattered whereas observed data were less. The suspended sediment curve parameters estimated more accurately where, the suspended sediments were sampled more, as a result of reduced uncertainty in estimated suspended sediment concentration due to parameter uncertainty. In addition to sampling density bootstrapped curves, uncertainty depends on the curve shape. For GLUE methodology to assess the impact of threshold values on the uncertainty results, threshold values systematically changed from 0.1 to 0.45. Study results showed that 95% confidence intervals are sensitive to the selected threshold values and higher threshold values will result in an increasing 95% confidence interval. However, the highest 95% confidence intervals obtained by GLUE method (when threshold value was set to 0.1) was little than those values obtained by Bootstrap.
Conclusions: The uncertainty of sediment rating curves was addressed in this study by considering two different procedures based on the GLUE and bootstrap methods for four stations in Sefidrod watershed.Results showed that nonlinear equation fitted log-transformed values of sediment concentration and discharge better than linear equation. Uncertainty result using GLUE depend on chosen threshold values. As threshold values increased, 95% confidence intervals decreased. Uncertainty results showed that 95% confidence intervals estimated by bootstrap were higher than the biggest 95% confidence intervals (when threshold value set to 0.1) estimated by GLUE method. Overall, in all stations, 95% confidence intervals arising from suspended sediment curve shapes (e.g, linear, second order polynomial and sigmoid function), data sampling density and uncertainty estimation methods (here were GLUE and Bootstrap).
M. Mohammadi; B. Ghahraman; K. Davary; H. Ansari; A. Shahidi
Abstract
Introduction: FAO AquaCrop model (Raes et al., 2009a; Steduto et al., 2009) is a user-friendly and practitioner oriented type of model, because it maintains an optimal balance between accuracy, robustness, and simplicity; and it requires a relatively small number of model input parameters. The FAO AquaCrop ...
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Introduction: FAO AquaCrop model (Raes et al., 2009a; Steduto et al., 2009) is a user-friendly and practitioner oriented type of model, because it maintains an optimal balance between accuracy, robustness, and simplicity; and it requires a relatively small number of model input parameters. The FAO AquaCrop model predicts crop productivity, water requirement, and water use efficiency under water-limiting and saline water conditions. This model has been tested and validated for different crops such as maize, sunflower and wheat (T. aestivum L.) under diverse environments. In most of arid and semi-arid regions water shortage is associated with reduction in water quality (i.e. increasing salinity). Plants in these regions in terms of water quality and quantity may be affected by simultaneous salinity and water stress. Therefore, in this study, the AquaCrop model was evaluated under simultaneous salinity and water stress. In this study, AquaCrop Model (v4.0) was used. This version was developed in 2012 to quantify the effects of salinity. Therefore, the objectives of this study were: i) evaluation of AquaCrop model (v4.0) to simulate wheat yield and water use efficiency under simultaneous salinity and water stress conditions in an arid region of Birjand, Iran and ii) Using different treatments for nested calibration and validation of AquaCrop model.
Materials and Methods: This study was carried out as split plot design (factorial form) in Birjand, east of Iran, in order to evaluate the AquaCrop model.Treatments consisted of three levels of irrigation water salinity (S1, S2, S3 corresponding to 1.4, 4.5, 9.6 dS m-1) as main plot, two wheat varieties (Ghods and Roshan), and four levels of irrigation water amount (I1, I2, I3, I4 corresponding to 125, 100, 75, 50% water requirement) as sub plot. First, AquaCrop model was run with the corresponding data of S1 treatments (for all I1, I2, I3, and I4) and the results (wheat grain yield, average of soil water content, and ECe) were considered as the “basic outputs”. After that and in the next runs of the model, in each step, one of the inputs was changed while the other inputs were kept constant. The interval of variation of the inputs was chosen from -25 to +25% of its median value. After changing the values of input parameters, the model outputs were compared with the “basic outputs” using the sensitivity coefficient (Sc) of McCuen, (1973). Since there are four irrigation treatments for each salinity treatment, the model was calibrated using two irrigation treatments for each salinity treatment and validated using the other two irrigation treatments. In fact, six different cases of calibration and validation for each salinity treatment were [(I3 and I4), (I2 and I4), (I1 and I4), (I2 and I3), (I1 and I3), and (I1 and I2) for calibration and (I1 and I2), (I1 and I3), (I2 and I3), (I1 and I4), (I2 and I4), and (I3 and I4) for validation, respectively]. The model was calibrated by changing the coefficients of water stress (i.e. stomata conductance threshold (p-upper) stomata stress coefficient curve shape, senescence stress coefficient (p-upper), and senescence stress coefficient curve shape) for six different cases. Therefore, the average relative error of the measured and simulated grain yield was minimized for each case of calibration. After calibrating the model for each salinity treatment, the model was simultaneously calibrated using six different cases for three salinity treatments as a whole.
Results and Discussion: Results showed that the sensitivity of the model to crop coefficient for transpiration (KcTr), normalized water productivity (WP*), reference harvest index (HIo), θFC, θsat, and maximum temperature was moderate. The average value of NRMSE, CRM, d, and R2 for soil water content were 11.76, 0.055, 0.79, and 0.61, respectively and for soil salinity were 24.4, 0.195, 0.72, and 0.57, respectively. The model accuracy for simulation of soil water content was more than for simulation of soil salinity. In general, the model accuracy for simulation yield and WP was better than simulation of biomass. The d (index of agreement) values were very close to one for both varieties, which means that simulated reduction in grain yield and biomass was similar to those of measured ones. In most cases the R2 values were about one, confirming a good correlation between simulated and measured values. The NRMSE values in most cases were lower than 10% which seems to be good. The CRM values were close to zero (under- and over-estimation were negligible). Based on higher WP under deficit irrigation treatments (e.g. I3) compared to full irrigation treatments (e.g. I1 and I2), it seems logical to adopt I3 treatment, especially in Birjand as a water-short region, assigning the remaining 25% to another piece of land. By such strategy, WP would be optimized at the regional scale.
Conclusion: The AquaCrop was separately and simultaneously nested calibrated and validated for all salinity treatments. The model accuracy under simultaneous case was slightly lower than that for separate case. According to the results, if the model is well calibrated for minimum and maximum irrigation treatments (full irrigation and maximum deficit irrigation), it could simulate grain yield for any other irrigation treatment in between these two limits. Adopting this approach may reduce the cost of field studies for calibrating the model, since only two irrigation treatments should be conducted in the field. AquaCrop model can be a valuable tool for modelling winter wheat grain yield, WP and biomass. The simplicity of AquaCrop, as it is less data dependent, made it to be user-friendly. Nevertheless, the performance of the model has to be evaluated, validated and fine-tuned under a wider range of conditions and crops.
Keywords: Biomass, Plant modeling, Sensitivity analysis
A. Moghaddam; A. Alizadeh; Alinaghi Ziaei; A. Farid Hosseini; D. Fallah Heravi
Abstract
Genetic Algorithm as a one of the main evolutionary algorithms has had a most successful role in the water distribution network optimization.This algorithmhas been undergoing many reforms and improved versions are published. A type of genetic algorithms is Fast Messy Genetic Algorithm (FMGA), that has ...
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Genetic Algorithm as a one of the main evolutionary algorithms has had a most successful role in the water distribution network optimization.This algorithmhas been undergoing many reforms and improved versions are published. A type of genetic algorithms is Fast Messy Genetic Algorithm (FMGA), that has the ability to increase the convergence rate in solving optimization problems with reducing the length of chromosomes and removing the inefficient genes, meanwhile studying the chromosomes which are not equal in terms of gene strings.In this paper, for evaluation of the FMGA performance in solving water distribution network optimization problems, after the sensitivity analysis and determining the best values of these parameters, two benchmark networks and a real network are analyzed, which are named Two-loop network, the Hanoi network and Jangal City network, respectively, and the results were compared with previous researches. Least-cost in two loop network was estimated after 2880 number of function evaluations that had significant improvements compared to the results of previous researches. In Hanoi network, the minimum cost obtained equal to 6.045×106 $ that is less than other researchers results are issued so far. After proving the efficiency of algorithm, its performance was shown in design of real Jangal city network according to increasing network size and design constraints.
H. Kashi; H. Ghorbani; S. Emamgholizadeh; S.A.A. Hashemi
Abstract
With respect to the problem of direct measurement of soil parameters in recent year using indirect method such as artificial neural networks has been considered. In the present study, 200 soil samples were collected from Ghoshe location in Semnan province. Half of samples were collected from disturbed ...
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With respect to the problem of direct measurement of soil parameters in recent year using indirect method such as artificial neural networks has been considered. In the present study, 200 soil samples were collected from Ghoshe location in Semnan province. Half of samples were collected from disturbed agricultural lands and the other half were collected from undisturbed nearby lands. Some soil chemical as well as physical properties such as electrical conductivity (EC), soil texture, lime percentage, sodium adsorption ration (SAR) and bulk density were considered as easy and fast obtainable features and soil cation exchange capacity as difficult and time consuming feature. The collected data randomly divided in two categories of training (70%) and testing (30%) and they used for train and test of two artificial neural networks, multi-layer perception using back-propagation algorithm (MLP/BP) and Radial basis functions (RBF) and nonlinear regression model. Results of this research show high efficiency of artificial neural network compared with nonlinear regression and also MLP network was better than RBF network. Sensitivity analysis was also performed for all parameters to find out the relationship between soil mentioned parameters and soil cation exchange capacity for both disturbed and undisturbed soils. At last, the correlation between soil parameters and soil cation exchange capacity was determined and most important parameters which could influence the soil cation exchange capacity were described.
