Prediction of Seasonal Variations of Climatological Parameters over Next 20 Years by Using Statistical Downscaling Method of HADCM3 Data(Case Study: Khorasan Razavi Province)

Document Type : Research Article

Authors

B. Ashraf ¹

M. Mousavi Baygi ¹

G.A. Kamali ²

K. Davari ¹

¹ Department of Water Engineering, Faculty of Agriculture, Ferdowsi University of Mashhad

² Department of Meteorology, Faculty of Science, Islamic Azad University, Science and Research Branch, Tehran

https://doi.org/10.22067/jsw.v0i0.10267

Abstract

Abstract
Due to low spatial resolution or simplifying of some micrometeorological phenomena, atmospheric general circulation models are not able to give a good estimation for weather conditions over study area. So their outputs should downscale into weather stations scales. In this research data of HADCM3 downscaled by using LARS-WG5 with three scenarios, confirmed by IPCC including A1B, A2 and B1 and seasonal variations of precipitation, min temperature, max temperature and sunshine hours of Khorasan Razavi province were investigated over 2011- 2030. Results show that the amount of precipitation in all stations will increase in autumn, winter and spring except Torbat-jam. Also the amount of precipitation in Kashmar during the autumn will decrease. The maximum and minimum increases in precipitation are belonging to Ghoochan and Sarakhs respectively. The results also show that the minimum temperature in all seasons and under three scenarios indicate rising trend in most cities. The only exception in this case occurred in autumn for Sarakhs based on A1B scenario. About maximum temperature and sunshine hours, although three scenario would not explain the same pattern, but generally in the next 20 years, the maximum temperature of Khorasan Razavi province, will increase and sunshine hours will decrease. Also despite the variation of maximum temperature is less than minimum temperature, is expected increase of average air temperature in this period. So according to these results, climatic conditions of Khorasan Razavi province in the next 20 years will have noticeable different with the present conditions and seems necessary, long-term and strategic planning to manage this situation.

Keywords: Climate change, Downscaling, General circulation model, LARS-WG5 model

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