تخصیص بهینه مخازن ذخیره سطحی با استفاده از روش سلسله مراتب فازی (مطالعه موردی: سد مخزنی شهرچای ارومیه)

نوع مقاله : مقالات پژوهشی

نویسندگان

1 ارومیه

2 دانشگاه ارومیه

3 دانشگاه ا رومیه

10.22067/jsw.2021.68472.1018

چکیده

اولویت‌بندی تخصیص بهینه آب مخازن ذخیره جریان سطحی برای مصارف مختلف (شرب، کشاورزی، صنعت، محیط‎زیست و ...) در مناطق خشک و نیمه‌-خشک مانند ایران به دلیل دامنه تغییرات و عدم قطعیت بالای جریان‏های ورودی به مخزن و وقوع خشکسالی‏های متناوب از اهمیت بالایی برخوردار می‌باشد. بدین منظور روش سلسله مراتب فازی (FAHP) به‌عنوان یک روش فرمول‌بندی مناسب در اولویت‌بندی تخصیص آب در سیستم منابع آبی پیشنهاد و استفاده می‏شود. لذا در این مطالعه اولویت‌بندی تخصیص آب برای مصارف مختلف سد مخزنی شهرچای واقع در بالادست کلان‌شهر ارومیه، در یک مطالعه میدانی و با استفاده از روش سلسله مراتبی فازی انجام پذیرفته است. این مطالعه میدانی بر اساس پرسش‌نامه از متخصصان و صاحب‌نظران صنعت آب منطقه بوده و مدل تصمیم‏گیری بر اساس داده‏های میدانی در یک فرآیند سلسله مراتبی فازی به ازای عوامل مؤثر کمی و کیفی توسعه‌یافته است. در فرایند مذکور، سه معیار اصلی اقتصادی، اجتماعی و زیست‎محیطی و چهار زیرمعیار درآمد، سطح زیر کشت، اشتغال‌زایی و جمعیت برای شش گزینه از آب‏بران کشاورزی، شرب، نیاز زیست‎محیطی دریاچه ارومیه، تغذیه آب زیرزمینی، صنعت و تفریحی در نظر گرفته شده است. نتایج نشان داد که معیار اقتصادی با وزن 47/0 نسبت به دو معیار اصلی دیگر بیشترین اهمیت را دارد. افزون بر آن تخصیص آب به بخش شرب شهری با وزن 33/0 در اولویت اول، کشاورزی، دریاچه ارومیه، صنعت، آب زیرزمینی و تفریحی به ترتیب در اولویت‌های بعدی قرار گرفتند. نتایج مذکور نشان از وابستگی شدید اقتصاد منطقه به توسعه صنعت کشاورزی و تولیدات آن بوده و تامین آب شرب و کشاورزی و همچنین دریاچه ارومیه به‏ترتیب جهت تامین آسایش، نیاز اصلی فعالیت‏های اقتصادی و حفظ اکوسیستم منطقه دارای الویت اصلی در برنامه‌ریزی و مدیریت سد شهرچای ارومیه هستند.

کلیدواژه‌ها

موضوعات


عنوان مقاله [English]

Optimal allocation of surface reservoir using fuzzy hierarchy method (Case study: Shahrchay reservoir dam in Urmia)

نویسندگان [English]

  • ELHAM rezaie 1
  • majid montaseri 2
  • Hosein ,ezaie 3
1 urmia
2 Urmia University
3 Urmia University
چکیده [English]

Introduction: Prioritization of optimal water allocation of surface flow storage dams for differ-ent uses (drinking, agriculture, industry, environment, etc.) in arid and semi-arid regions such as Iran due to the range of changes and high flow uncertainty Reservoir inlets and the occurrence of intermittent droughts are of great importance. For this purpose, the Fuzzy Hierarchy Process (FAHP) is proposed and used as a suitable formulation method in prioritizing water allocation in the water resources system. Therefore, in this study, prioritization of water allocation for different uses of Shahrchai reservoir dam located upstream of Urmia metropolis has been done in a field study using fuzzy hierarchical method.

Materials and Methods: In this study, a fuzzy hierarchical process based on quantitative and qualitative effective factors has been developed. In the first stage, the problem structure was determined by determining the priority of water allocation of users, criteria, sub-criteria and other factors, and then the decision-making hierarchy based on the problem structure (purpose, criteria, sub-criteria, factors and options in the first to fifth levels, respectively). defined. In the mentioned prioritization structure, the goal is determined in the first level, ie the optimal or appropriate allocation of Shahrchay reservoir dam water for different operators, and in the second level, three economic, social and environmental criteria are considered as the main criteria. At the third level, "area cultivation area and gross income" and "employment and population" are considered as sub-criteria of two economic and social criteria, respectively. The main beneficiaries, namely agriculture, urban drinking, recreation and tourism, industry, environmental needs of Lake Urmia and groundwater fourth level (options) have formed the problem structure. In the next step, based on field data or questionnaires, criteria, sub-criteria and factors were compared in pairs using the proposed linguistic and fuzzy comparisons, and the priority of water consumption over each criterion or sub-criterion or factor based on fuzzy triangular numbers. The weights were determined and ranked each using the Chang development method. In the third stage of the final ranking, the priority of water allocation is determined based on the final weight of criteria or priorities in the previous stage and the superior option is determined. Finally, at the end, a sensitivity analysis of the weight change of the criteria and the decision-making process in the problem has been performed.

Results and Discussion: In the present paper, a decision model based on a fuzzy approach is pre-sented to rank the different options using Shahrchay dam water. For this purpose, at first, using the opinions of experts and researchers, the results of a questionnaire, criteria and sub-criteria and important options in allocating water to Shahrchai Dam were determined. Then, using Chang's development analysis, different options were evaluated based on the mentioned criteria, sub-criteria and factors. From a scientific point of view, because the questionnaires were presented to experts, the economic criterion is a high priority, so it is possible to attach great importance to the general conclusion about the criteria in economic attitudes and related issues. In addition, the allocation of water to the urban drinking sector with a weight of 0.33 in the first priority, agriculture, Lake Urmia, industry, groundwater and recreation were in the next priorities, respectively. Therefore, economic criteria and drinking water supply were recognized as the main objectives of planning and managing water resources in the metropolis of Urmia. The drinking sector is a vital factor for the survival of a community and because the drinking water of Urmia city is supplied through Shahrchai dam, so the allocation of water to this sector should be the first priority. The agricultural sector was also given the second priority with less importance. The supply of water to this sector has a significant direct effect on the economy of the agricultural sector and indirectly on the entire economy of the region, which indicates the importance of the agricultural sector in the economy and living conditions of the region and the allocation of water to this sector. Comparing agricultural and industrial activities in Shahrchai catchment area, the most activity in the region is agriculture and industry is in a lower priority, which is also shown by the hierarchical results. Due to the fact that Shahrchai River is one of the suppliers of water to Lake Urmia, the allocation of water to this section improves the condition of the lake and, consequently, improves the environmental, economic and social conditions of the region. The results also indicate the importance of Lake Urmia in relation to industry and its higher status indicates the attention of officials to the drying crisis of Lake Urmia.

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • FAHP
  • Fuzzy
  • Shahrchay Dam
  • Water allocation

مقالات آماده انتشار، پذیرفته شده
انتشار آنلاین از تاریخ 02 آذر 1400
  • تاریخ دریافت: 03 بهمن 1399
  • تاریخ بازنگری: 19 آبان 1400
  • تاریخ پذیرش: 02 آذر 1400