Document Type : Research Article
Authors
1 Faculty of Jiroft University
2 Department of Geography and Tourism, Faculty of Natural Resources and Earth Sciences, University of Kashan, Kashan, Iran.
Abstract
Introduction
Increasing food security is at the heart of the United Nations’ sustainable development policies. On the other hand, global population growth, the depletion of vital natural resources used in agriculture, and ongoing environmental stresses and climate change undermine the achievement of this goal. In addition, plant diseases and pests cause 40 percent of agricultural production losses in some major crops on a global scale, seriously jeopardizing food security.
The intensity and frequency of extreme climate events such as heat waves and droughts and climate variability due to climate change will also increase in the future. Potatoes are among the most important agricultural products consumed by humans worldwide. However, potato production is continuously affected by abiotic and biotic factors, the latter of which leads to a loss of 20% of global potato production.
Considering the importance of potato in human diet and its impact on climatic and environmental conditions, especially temperature and humidity, as well as the necessity of studying climate changes in the future, it is necessary to study the conditions of potato cultivation under climate change conditions in the country. Knowing the future climate situation can play a very important role in planning and optimal management of water resources in the continuation of potato cultivation.
Materials and Methods
The study area in this research is the regions of the country that have the highest level of potato production in the country. Considering the climatic diversity in the country, potato crop is cultivated and harvested in two ways: spring and autumn. Therefore, in selecting the stations under study, an attempt has been made to examine both spring and autumn cultivation. The basis for selecting these regions was based on the average percentage of production and cultivated area of each province in the country's potato production during the years 1989-1995.
In order to provide field data for calibration and validation of the WOFOST model under potential conditions, data from research projects of agricultural research centers in Hamadan, Isfahan, Ardabil, Shiraz, Tabriz, Shahrekord, Jiroft, Kahnouj, Manojan, and Sanandaj, which are the main potato production centers of the country, were collected during 2010-2014 and used as the base period.
Daily data of climatic elements including maximum temperature, minimum temperature, precipitation, relative humidity, sunshine hours and average wind speed during the years 1981-2005 related to the studied synoptic stations were obtained from the Iran Meteorological Organization.
The WOFOST model was calibrated for all 10 potato producing stations in the country to predict the duration of the planting to emergence, emergence to flowering, and emergence to physiological maturity stages. After ensuring the high accuracy of the model in the calibration and validation stages, CanESM2 model data were used to assess the consequences of climate change on the growth period and phenological stages of potato in the period 2011-2099 under three radiative forcing scenarios (RCPs). The CanESM2 model data were also refined by the SDSM model. Using the WOFOST growth and development simulation model, simulation of potato phenological stages in the future climate period was carried out using the CanESM2 general circulation model and RCP2.6, RCP4.5, and RCP8.5 scenarios for the study areas.
In order to study and evaluate the effects of climate change on different stages of crop growth and production, future climate conditions must be estimated. Currently, future climate conditions are studied and evaluated using general circulation models (GCM) and different greenhouse gas emission scenarios. Combining the results of climate models with growth and development simulation models allows for the simulation of different phenological stages and crop performance in future climate conditions.
Results and Discussion
The calibration and validation results of the WOFOST model indicated the high accuracy of the model in simulating the phenological stages of the potato plant (sowing to emergence, emergence to flowering, and emergence to physiological maturity), such that the average root mean square error (RMSEn) for all three stages of potato growth in the study areas was below 10%. The results of this study show that the length of the growing season in the study areas will decrease under future climate conditions. The length of the growing season will decrease on average by 4.36 days in the study areas. This decrease was also observed in different growth stages, such that the planting to emergence stage had the least decrease by an average of one day, and the emergence to physiological maturity stage will have the greatest decrease in the length of the growing season.
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