واکاوی تغییر‌پذیری طول فصل رشد و درجه-روزهای رشد محصولات کشاورزی در مناطق مرتفع و ساحلی

نوع مقاله : مقالات پژوهشی

نویسندگان

1 گروه مهندسی آب، دانشکده کشاورزی، دانشگاه بوعلی سینا، همدان، ایران

2 دانشگاه بوعلی سینا همدان

چکیده

پایداری در تولید به عوامل گوناگونی وابسته است. یکی از مهمترین عواملی که پایداری در تولید را به شدت تحت تأثیر قرار می‌دهد و باعث افزایش یا کاهش عملکرد محصولات کشاورزی می‌گردد، عوامل محیطی به‌ویژه عوامل اقلیمی می‌باشد. رشد و نمو و گذر از مراحل فنولوژی گیاهان، تا حد زیادی به‌واسطه دمای پایه (Tb) و میزان تجمع درجه-روز‌های رشد (GDD) در طول فصل رشد (GSL) تنظیم می‌شود. در این پژوهش شاخص‌های کشاورزی GDD و GSL طی سال‌های زراعی 1338– 1337 تا 1397-1396 بر مبنای آستانه‌های صفر، پنج و 10 درجه سانتی‌گراد بر اساس دمای روزانه همگن 27 ایستگاه سینوپتیک هواشناسی نواحی مرتفع و ساحلی کشور محاسبه شد. با استفاده از آزمون من-کندال، روند تغییرات GDD و GSL تحت برنامه R استخراج و تحلیل شد. نتایج نشان داد که شاخص GSL برای آستانه‌های دمایی صفر و 5 درجه سانتی‌گراد در دوره‌های آماری 30 ساله اول (1338-1367) و 30 ساله دوم (1368-1397) تغییرات کمی را شاهد بوده است، ولی برای دمای 10 درجه سانتی‌گراد در 11 ایستگاه‌ دارای روندی معنادار بود. میزان انحراف از میانگین GSL در نواحی ساحلی بیشتر از نواحی مرتفع بود. این روند افزایشی در نواحی ساحلی از دهه 50 و در نواحی مرتفع از دهه 70 شمسی آغاز و تاکنون ادامه دارد. در این پژوهش مجموع سالانه GDD در دوره‌ آماری سی‌‌ساله اول حدود 41 درصد ایستگاه‌ها روند معنادار افزایشی را تجربه نمودند، در حالی‌که برای سی سال دوم به دلیل شتابگیری سیگنال‌های تغییر اقلیم روند افزایشی GDD به 93 درصد ایستگاه‌های مورد مطالعه گسترش یافت.

کلیدواژه‌ها

موضوعات


عنوان مقاله [English]

Investigating the Variability of Growing Season Length and Growing Degree-Days of Crops in Elevated and Coastal Areas

نویسندگان [English]

  • S.F. Ziaei Asl 1
  • A.A. Sabziparvar 2
1 Department of Water Science Engineering, Faculty of Agriculture, Bu-Ali Sina Unversity, Hamedan, Iran
2 Bu ali sina university
چکیده [English]

Introduction: It is possible to guide the agricultural experts to achieve a suitable genotype and adapt to climatic conditions in proportion to the length of the modified growing season by identifying the impact of climate change in recent years on the cumulative rate of degree-days of plant growth. This will prevent the waste of capital and agricultural inputs and ultimately prevent the reduction of the final crop due to the mismatch of genotype-crop with the current climate. In the present study, an attempt has been made to study and compare the trend in the start and end of the growing season, the growing season length (GSL), and growing degree-days(GDD) during 1959-2018 in the elevated and coastal areas of Iran.
Materials and Methods: For this study, the daily temperature of 27 synoptic stations were used including 19 stations in elevated areas and 8 stations in coastal areas during 1959-2018. The first day with a minimum daily temperature equal to or greater than 0, 5, and 10 °C was considered as the start of the growing season (SGS). Moreover, the first day after the start of the growing season which has a minimum daily temperature of less than 0, 5, and 10 °C was considered as the end of the growing season (EGS). Trend analysis was performed in time series of GSL and GDD based on thresholds of 0, 5, and 10 °C using the Mann-Kendall test. To compare the results, the statistical period of 60 years was divided into two periods of 30 years (1959-1988 and 1989-2018). In both periods, the statistical characteristics of the GSL and GDD based on the three thresholds mentioned in coastal and elevated areas were surveyed and compared. In this study, deviation from the mean was used to complete the study of changes in the GSL. This index shows the scatter of data around the mean.
Results and Discussion: The GSL extension came from both the advance in SGS and the delay in EGS. Comparison results of the two 30-year periods (1959-1988 and 1989-2018) showed that during 1989-2018, in most stations the GSL has increased. During this period, based on 0 °C, the earliest and latest SGS were on February 24 and April 30 in Yazd and Shahrekord, respectively. Accordingly, the earliest and latest EGS were on October 15 and December 11 in Shahrekord and Gorgan, respectively. Based on 5 °C, the earliest and latest SGS were on February 10 and June 2 in Abadan and Gorgan, respectively. Accordingly, the earliest and latest EGS on September 17 and December 6 were at Shahrekord, Bam, and Abadan, respectively. Based on 10 °C, the earliest and latest SGS was on February 11 and June 20 at stations, respectively. Accordingly, the earliest and latest EGS were on August 27 and December 8 in Shahrekord and Bushehr, respectively. The shortest and longest GSLs based on all three thresholds of 0, 5, and 10 °C were Shahrekord and Bandar Abbas, respectively. The highest and lowest coefficient of variation of GSL were 20.8% in Zanjan and 4.9% in Bandar Abbas, respectively. Based on 0, 5, and 10 °C, the lowest GDDs in GSL are 3233, 1767, and 880 °C.d, respectively, and all of them were obtained at Shahrekord. On the other hand, the highest GDD0, GDD5, and GDD10 in GSL were 6783, 7372, and 5761 °C.d, respectively, in Yazd, Abadan, and Bandar Abbas. The most significant trend in GSL was in Zanjan, Zahedan, and Khorramabad.
Conclusion: Examination of changes in the GSL indicates the existence of a significant trend in a limited number of stations. Also, with increasing the threshold from 0 to 5 and from 5 to 10 °C, there is a significant decreasing trend in more stations. At the threshold of 10 °C a significant and decreasing trend of GSL was observed in Urmia, Sanandaj, Khorramabad, Birjand, and Bandar Abbas stations, In following, a significant increasing trend was observed in Tabriz, Tehran, Kermanshah, Isfahan, Yazd, and Bushehr stations. The results of the studies showed fewer changes in the time series of the GSL based on thresholds of 0 and 5 °C in the statistical period of 1989-2018. On the other hand, the results showed that the GSL trend is significant in more stations in the recent period based on the threshold of 10 °C. Deviation from the average GSL in coastal areas was greater than the elevated areas so that the GSL based on 10 °C in both areas increased with greater slope and continuity. This increasing trend of deviation from the average in the coastal areas from the early '70s and the elevated areas from the early '90s and continues until now. In this regard, Bandar Abbas station and then Bushehr station had the longest GSL, and Shahrekord station had the shortest GSL among other stations which has been studied. Comparison of GDDs of the GSL during 1989-2018 showed the decrease of GDDs from south to north and from west to east of the country. Accordingly, in the southern stations of the country, the conditions for tropical plants (threshold of 10 °C) have become more suitable than the cold stations of the west and northwest, Time series analysis of the average annual GDDs based on the three thresholds during 1989-2018 showed a significant increasing (positive) trend in 93% of the stations. During the second 30-years period, Shahrekord and Shiraz stations did not show a significant trend in all three mentioned thresholds. However, the analysis of the annual average of GDDs during 1959-1988 showed the trend in 41% of the stations. According to the results of this study, it can be concluded that in cold regions, due to the increase in GDDs, the supply of cooling units for plants with certain cooling needs is more difficult. In the south of the country, as the total required GDD is achieved earlier, the GSL gets shorter, and therefore less dry biomass will accumulate in the product. This likely leads to a reduction in crop yields in this part of the country.

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • Climate change
  • Mann-Kendall test
  • Temperature thresholds
  • Thermal heat units
  • Trend analysis
  • Azizzadeh J., Ahmadi H., Baaghideh M., and Entezari A. 2020. Whether climate change is an opportunity or a threat? evaluation of potential climate change on tropical trees of Iran, Case Study: Palm Dates. Journal of Climate Research (40): 61-80. (In Persian)
  • Berhane A. 2018. Climate change and variability impacts on agricultural productivity and food security. Journal of Climatology & Weather Forecasting 6(3): 1-6.
  • Bishnoi O.P. 2010. Applied Agroclimatology. Oxford book company, India.
  • Ceglar A., Zampieri M., Toreti A., and Dentener F. 2019. Observed northward migration of agro‐climate zones in Europe will further accelerate under climate change. Earth's Future 7(9): 1088–1101.
  • Chmielewski F-M., and Rötzer T. 2002. Annual and spatial variability of the beginning of growing season in Europe in relation to air temperature changes. Climate Research 19(3): 257–264.
  • Christiansen D.E., Markstrom S.L., and Hay L.E. 2011. Impacts of climate change on the growing season in the United States. Earth Interactions 15(33): 1-17.
  • Egbebiyi T.S., Crespo O., Lennard C., Zaroug M., Nikulin G., Harris I., Price J., Forstenhäusler N., and Warren R. 2020. Investigating the potential impact of 1.5, 2 and 3 °C global warming levels on crop suitability and planting season over west Africa. PeerJ, 8:e8851.
  • Fallah Ghalhary G., and Ahmadi H. 2017. Trend analysis of phenological stages length and chilling requirements of apple tree (Case study: Karaj station). Journal of Agricultural Meteorology 5(1):57-70. (In Persian with English abstract)
  • Frich P., Alexander L.V., Della-Marta P., Gleason B., Haylock M., Klein Tank A.M.G., and Peterson T. 2002. Observed coherent changes in climatic extremes during the second half of the twentieth century. Climate Research 19(3): 193–212.
  • Grigorieva E. 2020. Evaluating the sensitivity of growing degree days as an agro-climatic indicator of the climate change impact: A Case Study of the Russian far east. Atmosphere, 11, 404.
  • Hejabi S., Abasalinezhad Sheramin H., and Doulati Baneh H. 2019. Effect of climate change on the phenology of "Bidaneh Sefid" table grape variety in West Azerbaijan province. Research in Pomology 4(2): 43-52. (In Persian)
  • Høgda K.A., Tømmervik H., and Karlsen S.R. 2013. Trends in the start of the growing season in fennoscandia 1982–2011. Remote Sensing (5): 4304-4318.
  • Kamali G., Mollaei P., and Behyar M. 2010. Development of Zanjan province dry land wheat atlas by using climatic data and GIS. Journal of Water and Soil 24(5): 894-907. (In Persian with English abstract)
  • Karlsen S.R., Solheim I., Beck P.S.A., Høgda K.A., Wielgolaski F.E., and Tømmervik H. 2007. Variability of the start of the growing season in Fennoscandia, 1982–2002. International Journal of Biometeorology 51: 513–524.
  • Kheirandish M., Ghahreman N., and Bazrafshan J. 2014. A study of the effects of climate change on length of growing season in several climatic regions of Iran. Iranian Journal of Soil and Water Research 44(2): 143-150. (In Persian)
  • Kiani S., Shahraki J., Akbari A., and Sardar Shahraki A. 2020. The effect of climate change on Iran's agricultural production: A case study of Wheat crop. Applied Field Crops Research 32(04): 109-127. (In Persian with English abstract)
  • Koocheki A. 2002. Crop Production in Dry Regions. Mashhad Jahad Daneshgahi Press, Mashhad.
  • Koocheki A., Nassiri M., Kamali G.A., and Shahandeh H. 2006. Potential impacts of climate change on agrometeorological indicators in Iran. Arid Land Research and Management 20(3): 245-259.
  • Linderholm H.W. 2006. Growing season changes in the last century. Agricultural and Forest Meteorology 137: 1–14.
  • Liu X., Yin Z., Shao X., and Qin N. 2006. Temporal trends and variability of daily maximum and minimum, extreme temperature events, and growing season length over the estern and central Tibetan Plateau during 1961-2003. Journal of Geophysical Research 111(D19): 1–19.
  • Lobell D.B., Schlenker W., and Costa-Roberts J. 2011. Climate trends and global crop production since 1980. Science 333: 616-620.
  • Masoodian S.A., and Darand M. 2014. Recognition and analysis of agro climatic indices changes in Iran. Geographical Researches 29(2): 39-50. (In Persian)
  • Mirdrikvand F., Nasiri B., and Karampour M. 2017. The effect of climate change on the length of growing season of wheat in Lorestan province (A case study of Khorramabad, Boroujerd and Doroud stations). In: Proceedings of 5th natioal & 1st international conference on organic vs. conventional agriculture, 16-17 Aug. University of Mohaghegh Ardabili, Ardabil, Iran.
  • Morovat S., Ebrahimi H., and Bakhsh Kelarestaghi K. 2013. Evaluate conditions climate change and effect of that upon farming calendar implant of Wheat in Mashhad. New Finding in Agriculture 7(4): 341-356. (In Persian)
  • Mozaffari G., and Torki M. 2010. Surveying about trend of variations of growth season's length in Iran. Geographic Thought 4(8): 24-43. (In Persian)
  • Mozaffari G., and Dehghan H. 2013. Zoning the length of growing period based on temperature characteristics in Iran. Journal of Geography and Regional Development 11(21): 121-137. (In Persian)
  • Mozaffari G., Fatemi M., and Dehghan H. 2019. Zonation and estimation of the trend of the thermal unit of growing season due to temperature changes, Iran. Physical Geography Research Quarterly 50(4): 731-746. (In Persian)
  • Pathak T.B., Maskey M.L., Dahlberg J.A., Kearns F., Bali K.M., and Zaccaria D. 2018. Climate change trends and impacts on California agriculture: A detailed review. Agronomy, 8, 25.
  • Rasooli S.J., and Ghaemi A.R. 2012. Canola cultivation area dividing about climatic temperature needs used GIS in Khorasan provinces. Journal of Crop Production 3(1): 121-138. (In Persian with English abstract)
  • Robeson S.M. 2002. Increasing growing-season length in Illinois during the 20th century. Climatic Change 52: 219- 238.
  • Serrano A., Mateos V.L., and Garcia J.A. 1999. Trend analysis of monthly precipitation over the Iberian Peninsula for the period 1921-1995. Physics and Chemistry of the Earth, Part (B) 24(1-2): 85-90.
  • Sharma P., Singh M., Bhardwaj S.K., and Bhatia H.S. 2019. Impact of accumulated growing degree days (GDD) on phenology of apple (Malus domestica Borkh) in Kullu district of Himachal Pradesh. Pharma Innovation 8(6): 850-854.
  • Shokouhi M. 2019. Evaluation of the impact of climate change on temperature and precipitation of rainfed wheat production in Kurdistan province. Journal of Agricultural Meteorology 7(1): 22-35. (In Persian with English abstract)
  • Tao F., Yokozawa M., Xu Y., Hayashi Y., and Zhang Z. 2006. Climate changes and trends in phenology and yields of field crops in China, 1981–2000. Agricultural and Forest Meteorology 138: 82-92.
  • Weikai Y., and Hunt L.A. 1999. An equation for modelling the temperature response of plants using only the cardinal temperatures. Annals of Botany 84(5): 607–614.
  • Wypych A., Sulikowska A., Ustrnul Z., and Czekierda D. 2017. Variability of growing degree days in Poland in response to ongoing climate changes in Europe. International Journal of Biometeorology 61: 49–59.
  • Yasari T., and Shahsavari M.R. 2013. Growing degree days zoning of developmental stages of spring Safflower in Isfahan province. Journal of Crop Production and Processing 3(8): 61-71. (In Persian)
  • Yazdanpanah H., Ebrahimi R., and Taghavi nia F. 2017. The introduction of a new system of zoning Iran the cooling needs in the coming decade. Journal of Climate Research 1396(29): 125-139. (In Persian)
  • Yin Y., Deng H., and Wu S. 2019. Spatial-temporal variations in the thermal growing degree-days and season under climate warming in Chaina during 1960-2011. International Journal of Biometeorology 63(5): 649-658.
CAPTCHA Image