عنوان مقاله [English]
Introduction: Correct assessment of evapotranspiration fluctuations in different meteorological scenarios plays an important role in the optimal management of water resources. Probability analyzes with different probabilities of occurrence can increase flexibility in decision making and increase the reliability of decisions. Rice (Oryza sativa L.) is one of the most important agricultural products in the world. Although rice is cultivated in a wide range of climatic and geographical conditions, it is vulnerable to changes in environmental conditions. Planting management, design of irrigation systems, and suitable irrigation cycle for optimal production are important issues for sustainable production.
Materials and Methods: The study area includes the northern region of Iran, i.e. the provinces of Gilan, Mazandaran and Golestan, which is the main rice-growing area in Iran. Changes in rice evapotranspiration in three different cultivation dates with four different occurrence probabilities of 75, 50, 25 and 10%, was calculated using the FAO Penman-Monteith equation and meteorological data with a statistical period of 30 years (2020- 1990). Also, the average rice crop coefficient at different stages of growth in 10-day periods was estimated based on the Weibull model. These probabilities represent the probable limits of the expected values of evapotranspiration in different scenarios of low, normal, high, and very high evapotranspiration years.
Results and Discussion: The results showed a relatively constant difference of 1 to 2 mm between different rice cultivation histories in the major rice cultivation areas of Gilan and Mazandaran in normal to very high evapotranspiration years. In the years of low evapotranspiration, the water requirement was significantly different from the normal, high and very high evapotranspiration years, which decreased from east to west. This difference was approximately 30% higher in Golestan province as compared with other areas. In the early planting situation relative to the late planting situation in the major western and central coastal areas, there was a 10% decrease in water consumption. At the scale of the whole growing season in Gorgan, evapotranspiration in different conditions of planting date was on average 20% (1300 cubic meters) more than the main regions of Gilan and Mazandaran. In case of timely planting, the net irrigation requirement in very high evapotranspiration years was about 2000 cubic meters per hectare more than the normal years. In years with high evapotranspiration, late planting increased the net irrigation requirement by more than 210 mm compared to different planting dates in Gorgan. According to the obtained results, the largest difference between evapotranspiration values during normal and very high evapotranspiration years was in the late planting situation. Therefore, it seems that late planting causes a significant increase in water consumption in the high evapotranspiration years. Consequently, it is better to avoid rice cultivation when the rice growing season is anticipated to be warm.
Conclusion: Evapotranspiration, as one of the main components of the hydrological cycle, had a significant role in proper irrigation planning and water resources management. The results underline the importance of estimating the rice evapotranspiration to avoid appreciable yield loss under extreme conditions.