نوع مقاله : مقالات پژوهشی
نویسندگان
1 دانشگاه اورمیه
2 دانشگاه ارومیه
چکیده
بررسی تغییرات وقایع حدی ناشی از گرمایش جهانی و تغییر اقلیم و ارزیابی اثرات آنها بر بخش‌های مختلف جامعه بسیار مهم است. هدف از این تحقیق بررسی تغییرات شاخص‌های حدی دما در شمال غرب ایران و ارتباط آنها با گردش کلی جو می‌باشد. بدین منظور ابتدا با استفاده از داده های دمای روزانه 20 ایستگاه سینوپتیک شمال غرب ایران در دوره 25 ساله (2010-1986) شاخص های حدی دما محاسبه شد و سپس نقشه‌های توزیع مکانی این شاخص ها ترسیم گردید. برای بررسی تغییرات گردش کلی جو و تأثیر آن بر وقایع حدی نیز، داده‌های گردش جو برای دوره آماری 1985-1961 به عنوان نماینده اقلیم پیشین و دوره آماری 2016-1986 به عنوان دوره تظاهر تغییر اقلیم بر اساس داده های باز تحلیل NCEP/NCAR دریافت گردید. سپس نقشه‌های تفاضل با استفاده از پارامترهای ارتفاع ژئوپتانسیل و چرخندگی نسبی تراز 500 هکتوپاسکال، امگای سطح زمین، ضخامت جو و دمای هوای سطح زمین ترسیم گردید. نتایج بررسی تغییرات شاخص‌های حدی نشان داد در اکثر ایستگاه‌های شمال‌غرب ایران شاخص‌های حدی سرد رو به کاهش است، درحالی‌که شاخص‌های حدی گرم افزایش یافته است. بررسی تاثیر گردش کلی جو بر تغییرات شاخص‌های حدی نیز نشان داد که تقویت گردش آنتی‌سیکلونی و افزایش ارتفاع ژئوپتانسیل از طریق افزایش پایداری جو، تغییرات اقلیمی در شمال غرب ایران را تشدید نموده است. بررسی نقشه‌های تفاضل دمای فصلی نیز حاکی از این است که کل منطقه در فصول گرم و سرد سال با افزایش دما و تنها شمال استان آذربایجان غربی اندکی کاهش دمای دوره سرد سال را منعکس می‌سازد که معنادار نمی‌باشد.
کلیدواژه‌ها
موضوعات
عنوان مقاله [English]
Trend analysis of temperature changes in northwest of Iran using extreme indices and its relation to atmospheric circulation
نویسندگان [English]
- خدیجه Javan 1
- Alireza Movaghari 2
1 urmia university
2 Urmia University
چکیده [English]
Introduction
The most important effect of global warming is the increase in extreme weather events. According to AR5 reports, between 1951 and 2010, the number of warm days and nights increased and the number of cold days and nights has declined globally. In addition, the duration and frequency of hot periods, including thermal waves, has increased since the middle of the twentieth century. The trend analysis of temperature extreme indices is important in estimating the trend of global warming. Temperature Changes are affected by many complex factors. A significant part of these changes is due to the elements of the general circulation of the atmosphere and the sea surface temperature. Given that extreme weather events are one of the most devastating natural hazards and have harmful effects on different parts of society, therefore, many researchers have studied the changes in the past and future of extreme events and the mechanisms that trigger these changes. This research attempts to study the trend of changes in extreme temperature indices in North-West of Iran, and also their relation with general circulation of atmosphere.
Data and methods
At first, diurnal data of minimum and maximum temperature of 20 synoptic stations of the Northwest of Iran, which have long-term and reliable statistics, extracted for the period of 1986-2010 and quality control and data homogeneity of them were investigated. afterwards, 16 Extreme temperature indices introduced by ETCCDMI were applied. In general, these indices are categorized into five categories of absolute indices, based on percentiles, based on thresholds, periodic, and amplitudes that measure the frequency, severity and duration of the temperature. These indices are estimated by RClimDex software and the trend rate of the changes in indices was shown as maps. To measure the changes in the general circulation of atmosphere the annual mean circulation composites extracted for the periods of 1961-1985 and 1986 -2016 based on the reanalysis data of the NCEP / NCAR. Then the difference maps plotted using grads software.
Results
The regional trend of extreme indices and the percentage of stations with a positive and negative trend were identified and the spatial distribution of the gradient of each of the indices was mapped. The results show that all absolute temperature indices have an increasing trend. On average, the maximum temperature (TXx and TXn) has increased by about 0.04 degrees over the decade. The Increase rate of TNx is about 0.03 degrees, while the TNn increased about 0.1 degrees Celsius per decade during the study period. Therefore, in the north-west of Iran, temperature increase has mainly occurred at night. The values of cold days (TX10) and cold nights (TN10) decreased with a gradient of -0.46 and -0.42 days in the decade. The warm days (TX90) and warm nights (TN90) have an increasing trend in 95% of the stations in the area. Frost days (FD) and icing days (IDs) have a decreasing trend, whereas, summer days (SU25) and tropical nights (TR20) have an increasing trend. The number of frost days with a gradient of -0.95 and the number of icing days with a gradient of -0.63 days in decade are decreasing. While, the number of summer days with a gradient of 0.81 and the number of tropical nights with gradient of 0.31 days in decade are increasing. In the northwest of Iran, all stations have been experiencing the increasing trend in Warm spell duration index (WSDI), but the cold spell duration index (CSDI) in 70% of the stations in the region has decreased. Growing season length, as an effective index especially in agriculture, is increasing by an average of 1.1 days per decade. Based on the results of research carried out globally and at the Iran, the trend of Daily temperature range (DTR) is negative, while this index has a positive and increasing trend in 65% of North-West stations in Iran. Except TNx and TNn indices that have positive trend in most stations in the region, Comparison of warm and cold extreme indices indicates that warm indices have a positive and incremental trend, while cold indicators show a decreasing trend. The positive gradient of these indices also corresponds to the decreasing trend of cold day and night indices, which indicates an increase in temperature and a decrease in cold days and nights. The study of large-scale changes in atmospheric circulation shows that the study area has been warmer in the spring and summer and colder in autumn and winter.
Conclusion
In this study, the trend of temperature extreme indices in North-West of Iran and its relation with the large-scale general circulation of the atmosphere have been investigated. The results show that all absolute temperature indices (TXx, TXn, TNx and TNn) are incremental. The indices of cold days (TX10) and nights (TN10) decreased with a gradient of -0.46 and -0.42 days in the decade and the indices of warm days (TX90) and warm nights (TN90) are increasing in 95% of the stations in the area. Frost days and icing days (IDs) show declining trend and summer days (SU25) and tropical nights (TR20) have an increasing trend. In the north-west of Iran, all stations have experienced an increasing trend in Warm spell duration index (WSDI), but the cold spell duration index (CSDI) has been decreasing in 70% of the stations in the area. Growing season length (GSL) is increasing by an average of 1.1 days in every decade. Daily temperature range (DTR) has a positive and increasing trend in 65% of stations in north-west Iran. Comparison of warm and cold extreme indices indicates that warming indices have a positive and incremental trend, while cold indices show a decreasing trend. Study of the general circulation of atmosphere of the region by drawing and analyzing difference maps indicates that the study area has been warmer in spring and summer and colder in autumn and winter.
Keywords: Climate Change, Temperature Indices, Atmosphere Circulation, Northwest of Iran.
کلیدواژه‌ها [English]
- Climate Change
- Temperature Indices
- Atmosphere Circulation
- Northwest of Iran
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