واکاوی روند تغییرات بلند مدت تراز فشار وردایست بر روی جو ایران در فصول گرم و سرد

نوع مقاله : مقالات پژوهشی

نویسندگان

1 استاد اقلیم‌شناسی، دانشگاه زنجان، زنجان، ایران

2 استاد اقلیم‌شناسی، دانشگاه اصفهان، اصفهان، ایران

3 دانشیار گروه آب و هواشناسی، دانشگاه کردستان، ایران. عضو گروه پژوهشی مطالعات محیطی دریاچه زریبار، پژوهشکده کردستان شناسی، دانشگاه کردستان

4 دانشجوی دکتر آب و هواشناسی (تغییر اقلیم)، دانشگاه زنجان، ایران

چکیده

اندازه­گیری فراسنج‌های مرتبط با ویژگی‌های وردایست (نظیر دما و ارتفاع) می‌تواند در شناسایی تغییرات جوی حاصل از افزایش دمای جهانی مفید باشد. تراز فشار وردایست بعضاً تحت تأثیر تغییر ویژگی‌های فیزیکی - شیمیایی دولایه‌ی وردسپهر و پوشن‌سپهر است. در پژوهش حاضر تلاش شد روند تراز فشار وردایست در ماه­های فصل زمستان و تابستان تحت تأثیر تغییرات دمایی جو (دمای تراز پایین و بالای وردایست و نیز دمای سطحی) ایران در سطح معنی‌داری 05/0 (95% اطمینان) بررسی گردد. نتایج بررسی روند تراز فشار وردایست نشان داد که در اغلب ماه­های مورد مطالعه و در اکثر مناطق کشور روند تغییرات تراز فشار وردایست در سطح اطمینان مورد نظر معنی­دار نبوده است و در بین دو فصل مطالعه شده بالاترین میزان معنی­داری روند از نظر مساحت تحت پوشش، مربوط به فصل تابستان است. نتایج بررسی روند دمای تراز پایین و بالای وردایست نیز در ماه­های فصول تابستان و زمستان نشان داد که در بخش­های وسیعی از جو کشور روند مشاهده شده به لحاظ آماری معنی­دار نبوده است. بررسی روند تفاضل دمای دو تراز یاد شده  بر روی جو ایران نیز نشان داد که روند تفاضل دمای این دو تراز بر روی جو ایران در اکثر مناطق و ماه­ها به لحاظ آماری معنی‌دار نبوده است. در این میان روند تفاضل دمای دو تراز مورد بحث در ماه­های فصل تابستان منفی، معنی دار و قابل توجه بود. بررسی روند پراش، چولگی و کشیدگی نیز نشان داد که در دو فصل مورد بررسی در اغلب مناطق روند مشاهده شده فاقد معنی آماری است.

کلیدواژه‌ها


عنوان مقاله [English]

Analysis of the long - term trend of the tropopause pressure levels over the atmosphere of Iran in the warm and the cold seasons

نویسندگان [English]

  • Hossein Asakereh 1
  • Seyed Abolfazl Masoodian 2
  • M. Darand 3
  • soma zandkarimi 4
1 Professor of Climatology, University of Zanjan, Zanjan, Iran
2 Professor of Climatology, University of Isfahan, Isfahan, Iran
3 Associate Professor at Climatology, University of Kurdistan, Iran and Board Member of Department of Zrebar Lake Environmental Research, Kurdistan Studies Institute, University of Kurdistan
4 Ph.D. Candidate of Climatology (Climate Change), University of Zanjan, Zanjan, Iran
چکیده [English]

Introduction: Studies of the atmosphere over the last hundred years have shown that human activities have caused changes in the atmosphere. The tropopause is one of the layers of the atmosphere whose changes have recently been introduced as a sign of a human impact on climate change. The height of the tropopause is affected by its upper and lower layers (the stratosphere and troposphere). The results of the studies conducted by various researchers have shown that different factors affect the height of tropopause and its changes, which can be divided into two groups. The first group of natural factors (such as changes in solar radiation and weather due to volcanoes, etc.) and the second one is human factors (including changes in greenhouse gases, human-induced changes affecting the ozone of the stratosphere and the production of air vents from human resources, etc.). Thus, altitude tropopause is naturally influenced by spatial characteristics (e.g. latitude and altitude), time (such as the time of year and hours of the day) as well as the frequency of atmospheric actions that determine climatic conditions.
Materials and Methods: Compared to the studies performed globally, a limited number of studies concerning the tropopause have been conducted in Iran. Moreover, the applied methods and the length of the dataset were often inadequate. Therefore, in the present study, the daily data of temperature, and geopotential height from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) for 700 to 50 hpa with a spatial resolution of 0.25 × 0.25 longitude/latitude were applied from 1979 to 2018 for the detection of tropopause. Accordingly, 2491 cells covered across Iran. The LRT was used to detect tropopause. The tropopause is defined as ‘‘the lowest level at which the lapse-rate decreases to 2 ºC/km or less, provided that the average lapse-rate between this level and all higher levels within 2 km does not exceed 2 ºC /km”. In the present study, in addition to changing the position, changing the scale (variance) as well as the shape of the frequency distribution (skewness and elongation) of the tropopause pressure level in each of the pixels on Iran was investigated. To calculate skewness, and kurtosis, daily tropopause height data were used. For each of the months studied, diffraction, skewness, and elongation were extracted using daily data and finally using data during the 40 years. The extracted trends of variance, skewness, and kurtosis were examined for each month. To track the synchronicity and conformity of changes in altitude and trend of tropopause pressure level with the trend of changes in mean monthly temperature in the lower and upper levels of the tropopause and the trend of the temperature difference between the two layers around tropopause was also evaluated over 40 years. In order to evaluate the long-term trend of each of the studied indices (mean, variance, skewness, and kurtosis) in relation to the height and pressure level of the tropopause, linear regression method with least-squares error method was used.
Results and Discussion: The results of the study of altitude trend and tropopause pressure level showed that in most of the months studied and in most parts of the country, the trend of changes in tropopause pressure level was not significant at the level of 95% confidence. According to the results obtained for the winter months, it was found that the trend of a tropopause pressure level in December had no statistical significance over Iran at a 95% confidence level. In January and February, the obtained trend was not statistically significant except for southeastern areas. In the summer months, unlike the winter months, the trend of tropopause pressure levels was significant in most regions. During the summer months, in areas where the trend was significant, the trend of tropopause pressure levels was positive. Examination of the trend of tropopause height in terms of meters showed different results with pressure level. During the winter months, the trend was positive in all regions, and in January and February, this trend was significant in many areas, while the summer months did not exhibit a significant tropopause. The results of examining the trend of the low temperature of the tropopause in summer and winter months showed that the observed trend was not statistically significant in December, but in other months, a positive and significant trend was detected. Examination of the temperature trend in the high level of tropopause also showed that the temperature trend in this part of the atmosphere, like the low level of the tropopause in large parts of the country in the studied seasons, lacked statistical significance. Examination of the trend of the temperature difference between high and low levels also showed that the trend of the temperature difference between these two levels was statistically insignificant at the majority of cases. The temperature difference trend of the two levels studied in the summer months was negative and significant at most regions. In other words, the decrease in the temperature difference between low and high tropopause in these two seasons and in some areas indicates a strong decrease in tropopause. Examination of the trend of variance, kurtosis and skewness also showed that the observed trend lacked statistical significance in the two studied chapters at most areas. There was also no relationship between the surface temperature trend and changes in tropopause height.
Conclusion: The results of this study showed that tropopause had no statistically significant trend in most areas and months. Moreover, the significant trend was not related to the two temperatures around tropopause and surface temperatures.

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • Cold season
  • Iran
  • Tropopause pressure level
  • Tropopause
  • Warm season
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